Accel Entertainment carries a perfect earnings beat streak and a cheap-looking valuation, but a failed momentum gate, thin upside margin, and insider selling against an institutional-reach cap argue for trimming rather than adding.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation Vs Growth→Stable
- Momentum And Asymmetry Gates Failed→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Accel Entertainment is a leading U.S. distributed gaming operator that installs, services and operates gaming terminals, redemption devices and ATMs at bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops and fraternal/veteran establishments across roughly ten states, alongside... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-03Recent Developments — Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Dips 0.89%, Approaches Critical Support - Andrews Pitchfork - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Dips 0.89%, Approaches Critical Support - Passive Flow - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et negative
- NEWS Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Dips 0.89%, Approaches Critical Support - Bollinger Band - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Accel Entertainment Inc (ACEL) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Accel Entertainment Inc (ACEL) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-03T19:07:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicIllinois, Montana and Nevada10-K Item 1A: 'our concentration in Illinois, Montana and Nevada heightens exposure to local conditions'
- MEDIUMSupplierconcentrated network of key gaming terminal manufacturers10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on a concentrated network of key manufacturers, developers, and third-party providers for gaming terminals, amusement machines, redemption devices, stand-alone ATMs, and related software, content, and technologies'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.27. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $13.55 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.27. Stop-loss: $11.27.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Negative momentum.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover ACEL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $16.
What does Accel Entertainment, Inc. do?Accel Entertainment is a leading U.S. distributed gaming operator that installs, services and operates gaming...
Accel Entertainment is a leading U.S. distributed gaming operator that installs, services and operates gaming terminals, redemption devices and ATMs at bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops and fraternal/veteran establishments across roughly ten states, alongside its Fairmount Park casino and horse racing venue near St. Louis. The company earns revenue through statutory or negotiated splits of net terminal income with its location partners, employing over 1,600 people, with its operations concentrated in Illinois, Montana and Nevada.