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ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.Sell6.1·$12.77+0.00%
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Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Sell if holding. At $12.77, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%.

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It engages in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller... Read more

$12.77+5.6% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.37%
Stop $12.03Target $13.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$15.50+21.4%6 analysts
$13.48our TP
$12.77price
$15.50mean
$17

Sell if holding. At $12.77, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta1.01
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.7
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.94Resistance $14.00

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $12.77, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 5.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.03. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.48 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.03. Stop-loss: $12.03.

What are the risks of investing in ACEL?

Thin upside margin: 5.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ACEL overvalued or undervalued?

Accel Entertainment, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACEL?

13 analysts cover ACEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Accel Entertainment, Inc. do?Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United...

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It engages in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also designs and manufactures gaming terminals and related equipment, as well as offers turnkey and full-service gaming solutions to bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops, and fraternal and veteran establishments. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, and other entertainment related equipment; and develops brick-and-mortar casinos that serve local gaming markets and horse racing venues. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.

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