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ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions CorpSell6.0·$46.65
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions delivers a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a maximum Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and 129% free cash flow conversion — but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with only 0.2% upside remaining, making the current entry a near-zero reward-to-risk proposition.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat Fcf Conversion→Stable
  • Maximum Piotroski Score Quality→Stable
  • Analyst Target Exhausted Zero Upside→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp (ZWS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Pollution & Treatment Controls

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $46.65: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions designs and manufactures specification-driven water management products — valves, drainage, filtration, and hygienic fixtures — primarily for North American institutional and commercial construction markets. Products are distributed through... Read more

$46.65+9.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 5 Pollution & Treatment Controls
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.17%
IncomeYield0.94%(5y avg 0.87%)Payout26.09%sustainable
Stop $44.81Target $50.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$58.44+25.3%9 analysts
$50.85our TP
$46.65price
$58.44mean
$65

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $46.65: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.0%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.9
P/E (Fwd)22.9
Mkt Cap$7.7B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn15.5%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth10.5%
Beta0.77
Dividend0.94%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer18%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's largest customer accounted for 18%, 19% and 20% of consolidated net sales for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop five customers38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers accounted for approximately 38% of our consolidated net sales, with one customer accounting for 18% of consolidated net sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerthree largest independent distributors32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our three largest independent distributors generated approximately 32% of our consolidated net sales with the largest accounting for 18% of consolidated net sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David J. Pauli, CFO of Zurn Elkay since 2012, promoted to COO effective May 27, 2026, vacating the CFO role. No successor CFO identified in filing (body truncated). Pauli continues to report to CEO Todd Adams in the COO capacity.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOW
    Sudhanshu Chhabra, Executive Vice President, Zurn Elkay Business Systems, transitioned to an advisory role effective April 30, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 5.07LOW
    Zurn Elkay held its 2026 Annual Meeting on April 30, 2026 with 167,542,304 shares eligible to vote. Shareholders elected three directors for three-year terms expiring 2029, approved executive compensation on advisory basis, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as auditor for FY2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
4.2
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.40Resistance $48.75

Price Targets

$45
$51
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts15
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$58

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZWS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $46.65: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.81. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZWS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.85 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $44.81. Stop-loss: $44.81.

What are the risks of investing in ZWS?

Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is ZWS overvalued or undervalued?

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZWS?

15 analysts cover ZWS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.

What does Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp do?Zurn Elkay Water Solutions designs and manufactures specification-driven water management products — valves, drainage,...

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions designs and manufactures specification-driven water management products — valves, drainage, filtration, and hygienic fixtures — primarily for North American institutional and commercial construction markets. Products are distributed through approximately 1,000 independent sales representatives and wholesalers; the largest single customer accounted for 18% of 2025 consolidated net sales. The company operates 21 principal manufacturing and warehouse facilities, primarily in North America.

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