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WUWestern Union Company (The)Sell4.8·$7.30-2.57%
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Western Union Company (The) (WU) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%.

Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and territories. Consumer Money Transfer (87% of 2025 revenue) drives the business through agent-based transactions; Consumer Services (13%) covers bill payments, money... Read more

$7.30+8.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#28 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield12.42%
IncomeYield12.55%(5y avg 7.76%)Payout69.12%
Stop $6.84Target $7.90(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$9.08+24.3%13 analysts
$7.90our TP
$7.30price
$9.08mean
$11

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Western Union Company (The)

About Western Union Company (The)

Western Union's Consumer Money Transfer segment generated 87% of total consolidated revenues in 2025, operating across more than 200 countries and territories through approximately 360,000 active agent locations as of December 31, 2025. Consumer Services — bill payment, money orders, and travel money — contributed 13%. The company operates under the Bank Secrecy Act and equivalent anti-money laundering regimes in jurisdictions worldwide.

Western Union earns revenue through per-transaction fees and foreign exchange spreads between wholesale rates and consumer-facing prices, with amounts varying by channel, corridor, and funding method. Agents on both the send and receive sides receive commissions; in digital transactions, the company bears chargeback risk and pays card processors in addition to receive-side commissions. The top 40 agents and partners — each in the network for more than 20 years on average — generated approximately 50% of Consumer Money Transfer revenue in 2025, though no individual agent exceeded 10% of segment revenue. In August 2025, the company signed an agreement to acquire Intermex, focused on U.S.-to-Latin America corridors, for approximately $500 million, subject to regulatory approvals expected in the second quarter of 2026. Western Union also announced a 'Beyond' strategy in November 2025, encompassing digital wallets, consumer financial services, and a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin called USDPT, which the company plans to issue on the Solana blockchain by Anchorage Digital Bank, N.A. in the first half of 2026.

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Western Union's regulatory compliance structure reflects the cost of operating across more than 200 countries. The company is subject to OFAC economic sanctions, providing limited transfer services to authorized parties in regions of Ukraine and other sanctioned corridors only under specific OFAC licenses or advisory opinions. Consent orders and settlement agreements impose additional compliance obligations on agent monitoring and anti-money laundering programs, with the 10-K noting these changes 'have had, and may continue to have, adverse effects' on the business. A considerable portion of revenue is denominated in euros, exposing translated U.S. dollar results to currency moves that hedging only partially offsets.

See also: Financial Services · Credit Services

From Western Union Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 63%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)3.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn10.9%
ROE47.7%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta0.49
Dividend12.55%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$8+9.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.4
Macd
3.9
Obv
4.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 1255.0%
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.01Resistance $8.34

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+8.2%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.30 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 8.8%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $6.84. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the WU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.90 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $6.84. Stop-loss: $6.84.

What are the risks of investing in WU?

Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is WU overvalued or undervalued?

Western Union Company (The) trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 3.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WU?

26 analysts cover WU with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Western Union Company (The) do?Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and...

Western Union is a cross-border money movement company with a global retail agent network in 200+ countries and territories. Consumer Money Transfer (87% of 2025 revenue) drives the business through agent-based transactions; Consumer Services (13%) covers bill payments, money orders, and digital wallets.

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