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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (VRTX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $445.12 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes specialty medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia, and acute pain. Sales run through specialty pharmacy, specialty distributors, and U.S. wholesalers; substantially all net... Read more

$436.31+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#27 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.52%
Entry $445.12(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $422.51Target $494.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$549.29+25.9%28 analysts
$494.36our TP
$436.31price
$549.29mean
$330
$641

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $445.12 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

About Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

Vertex Pharmaceuticals commercializes five approved CF medicines — ALYFTREK, TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO, SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO — used by nearly three-quarters of approximately 97,000 people with cystic fibrosis in the U.S., Europe, Australia, and Canada, with an estimated 112,000 people with CF across all target markets. The portfolio also includes CASGEVY, a CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing therapy for severe sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia, and JOURNAVX, a selective NaV1.8 acute-pain inhibitor approved by the FDA in January 2025.

The company sells primarily to a limited number of specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors globally, plus certain major U.S. wholesalers, with U.S. customers reselling to patients, healthcare providers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, or authorized treatment centers; ex-U.S. distribution runs through distributor arrangements, retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics, many government-owned. CF medicines dominate the revenue base — the 10-K states substantially all net product revenues have been derived from CF — with the medicines reimbursed or accessible in more than 60 countries across six continents. CASGEVY uses a multi-step ex-vivo manufacturing chain anchored on authorized treatment centers; 64 patients received infusions globally in 2025 and 147 had first cell collections. JOURNAVX recorded more than 550,000 prescriptions filled between U.S. launch in March 2025 and year-end 2025, with coverage extended to more than 200 million commercial and government lives plus Medicaid coverage in 21 states. The mid- and late-stage pipeline spans povetacicept (IgA nephropathy, primary membranous nephropathy), inaxaplin (APOL1-mediated kidney disease), suzetrigine (diabetic peripheral neuropathy), and zimislecel (type 1 diabetes).

Show full overview

Pricing-power transition is the dominant near-term policy lens for Vertex. The 10-K notes Colorado's Prescription Drug Affordability Board selected TRIKAFTA for an affordability review in August 2023; while it was later found ineligible for an upper payment limit, the company cannot predict whether future PDAB reviews will reach the same conclusion. The filing separately flags CMS's recently proposed GUARD Model imposing most-favored-nation pricing on U.S. prescription drug prices in government programs, alongside Inflation Reduction Act-driven Medicare negotiation pressure and march-in rights. In December 2024, the FDA required moving TRIKAFTA liver-injury information into a boxed warning, with similar language imposed on the ALYFTREK label — a safety label change that may impact acceptance if competing CFTR modulators emerge.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted May 16, 2026.

Recent Developments — Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 29, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Director Suketu Upadhyay informed the Board on April 28, 2026 he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting due to scheduling conflicts associated with his new role as CFO of Incyte Corporation. No disagreement with the company cited. Board to reduce to ten members.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.8
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$110.2B
EV/EBITDA21.1
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE24.2%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.30
DividendNone
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$360-17.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCF medicines
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all our net product revenues have been derived from the sale of our CF medicines'
  • MEDIUMCustomerspecialty pharmacy and specialty distributors
    10-K Item 1: 'We sell our medicines primarily to a limited number of specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors globally, as well as to certain major wholesalers in the U.S.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Director Suketu Upadhyay informed the Board on April 28, 2026 he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting due to scheduling conflicts associated with his new role as CFO of Incyte Corporation. No disagreement with the company cited. Board to reduce to ten members.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOW
    On March 27, 2026, the Board approved the Vertex 2026 Stock and Option Plan, replacing the 2013 Stock and Option Plan, subject to shareholder approval. Shareholders approved the 2026 Plan at the May 13, 2026 annual meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-13Item 5.07LOW
    Annual meeting held May 13, 2026; shareholders elected Sangeeta Bhatia, Lloyd Carney, Alan Garber, Reshma Kewalramani, Michel Lagarde, Jeffrey Leiden, Diana McKenzie, Bruce Sachs, Jennifer Schneider and Nancy Thornberry to the Board until the 2027 annual meeting, and approved the 2026 Stock and Option Plan.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $412.27Resistance $456.68

Price Targets

$423
$445
$494
A.Upside+13.3%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts39
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$549

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRTX stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $445.12 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risk: Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $494.36 (+13.3%), stop $422.51 (−3.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $494.36 (+13.8% upside). Target $494.36 (+13.3%), stop $422.51 (−3.3%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $422.51.

What are the risks of investing in VRTX?

Concentration risk — Product: CF medicines.

Is VRTX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VRTX?

39 analysts cover VRTX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $549.

What does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor do?Vertex Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes specialty medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease,...

Vertex Pharmaceuticals develops and commercializes specialty medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia, and acute pain. Sales run through specialty pharmacy, specialty distributors, and U.S. wholesalers; substantially all net product revenues historically derive from CF medicines. CASGEVY (CRISPR gene-editing for severe SCD/TDT) and JOURNAVX (NaV1.8 acute-pain inhibitor approved January 2025) diversify the portfolio.

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