Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the VIPS stock price target?

Take-profit $18.04 (+26.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.65.

Q: What are the risks of investing in VIPS?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is VIPS overvalued or undervalued?

Vipshop Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 6.8 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about VIPS?

27 analysts cover VIPS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $20.

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth.

$14.23+26.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 18 Internet Retail

Stop $13.65Target $18.04(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.3:1

Analyst target$20.05+40.9%21 analysts

$18.04our TP

$14.23price

$20.05mean

$25

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 54%

Risks

Weak growth

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.8

P/E (Fwd)5.1

Mkt Cap$6.8B

EV/EBITDA-1.8

Profit Mgn6.8%

ROE17.2%

Rev Growth-2.3%

Beta0.75

Dividend4.38%

Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish

IV50%elevated

Max Pain$20+40.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.415%1.41

Quality4.115%0.61

Growth2.815%0.42

Momentum3.710%0.37

Sentiment7.410%0.74

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup6.85%0.34

Risk Profile7.95%0.40

Catalyst6.85%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)5.49

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

1.9

Earnings Growth

3.8

Declining revenue: -2%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.6

Quality Rank

5.2

Value Rank

8.8

Attractive P/E vs peers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

2.2

Macd

3.0

Rsi

3.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

37 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.07Resistance $15.87

Price Targets

$14

$18

A.Upside+26.8%

A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VIPS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.65. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.04 (+26.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.65. Stop-loss: $13.65.

What are the risks of investing in VIPS?

Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is VIPS overvalued or undervalued?

Vipshop Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 6.8 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VIPS?

27 analysts cover VIPS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Vipshop Holdings Limited do?Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through...

Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others segments. It provides womenswear, menswear, sportswear and sporting goods, baby and children products, shoes and bags, skincare and cosmetics, home goods and other lifestyle products, and supermarket and other products. The company also engages in warehousing, retail business, product procurement, and software development and information technology support activities. It provides branded products through its vip.com and vipshop.com online platforms, as well as through retail stores. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.