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VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedHold5.4·$13.99+0.50%
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Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others segments. It provides womenswear, menswear, sportswear and sporting goods, baby and children products, shoes and bags,... Read more

$13.99+22.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 18 Internet Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.45%Payout23.42%sustainable
Stop $13.15Target $17.07(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$18.97+35.6%21 analysts
$17.07our TP
$13.99price
$18.97mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 58%
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.3
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA-1.3
Profit Mgn7.1%
ROE17.8%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta0.62
Dividend4.45%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.31bearish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$9-35.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
5.8
Value Rank
8.8
Attractive P/E vs peers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.9
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.44Resistance $14.98

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+22.0%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIPS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.99, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $17.07 (+22.0%), stop $13.15 (−6.4%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.07 (+22.0% upside). Target $17.07 (+22.0%), stop $13.15 (−6.4%), A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $13.15.

What are the risks of investing in VIPS?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is VIPS overvalued or undervalued?

Vipshop Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 6.3 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VIPS?

26 analysts cover VIPS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Vipshop Holdings Limited do?Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through...

Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others segments. It provides womenswear, menswear, sportswear and sporting goods, baby and children products, shoes and bags, skincare and cosmetics, home goods and other lifestyle products, and supermarket and other products. The company also engages in warehousing, retail business, product procurement, and software development and information technology support activities. It provides branded products through its vip.com and vipshop.com online platforms, as well as through retail stores. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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