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RVLVRevolve Group, Inc.Sell6.2·$20.82
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revolve Group has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 50%, and analysts see 43% upside to consensus targets, but a confirmed death cross in moving averages, high debt-to-equity of 6.3, and a price trading below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term headwinds.

Thesis pillars

  • Large Earnings Beat Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • High Leverage And Recovery Setup↓Deteriorating
  • Analyst Upside To Consensus Target↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium lifestyle brand and a go-to online source for discovery and inspiration, we deliver exceptional service and an engaging customer experience with a vast yet curated... Read more

$20.82+28.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 16 Internet Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.39%
Stop $19.36Target $26.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$30.85+48.2%13 analysts
$26.84our TP
$20.82price
$30.85mean
$37

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)18.1
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE14.3%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta1.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.44bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$15-28.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.25Resistance $23.48

Price Targets

$19
$27
A.Upside+28.9%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RVLV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.82 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $19.36. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RVLV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.84 (+28.9% upside). Prior stop was $19.36. Stop-loss: $19.36.

What are the risks of investing in RVLV?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is RVLV overvalued or undervalued?

Revolve Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RVLV?

21 analysts cover RVLV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Revolve Group, Inc. do?REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium...

REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium lifestyle brand and a go-to online source for discovery and inspiration, we deliver exceptional service and an engaging customer experience with a vast yet curated offering totaling over 140,000 apparel and footwear styles, as well as beauty and accessories.

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