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RVLVRevolve Group, Inc.Sell6.2·$19.98
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revolve Group has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 50%, and analysts see 43% upside to consensus targets, but a confirmed death cross in moving averages, high debt-to-equity of 6.3, and a price trading below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term headwinds.

Thesis pillars

  • Large Earnings Beat Pattern↓Deteriorating
  • High Leverage And Recovery Setup↑Improving
  • Analyst Upside To Consensus Target↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium lifestyle brand and a go-to online source for discovery and inspiration, we deliver exceptional service and an engaging customer experience with a vast yet curated... Read more

$19.98+32.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 16 Internet Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.43%
Stop $18.58Analyst target $26.37(−13% haircut)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst consensus$30.31+51.7%13 analysts with price targets
$26.37Analyst target
$19.98price
$30.31mean
$37

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — Revolve Group, Inc.

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Feb 23, 2027110d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.7
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE14.3%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta1.63
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$18-12.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.9
Rsi
3.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (3.1x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 110d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.93Resistance $23.64

Price Targets

$19
$26
A.Upside+32.0%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-23 (110d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RVLV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.98 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $18.58. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RVLV stock price target?

Analyst target: $26.37 (+32.0% upside). Prior stop was $18.58. Stop-loss: $18.58.

What are the risks of investing in RVLV?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum.

Is RVLV overvalued or undervalued?

Revolve Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.7 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RVLV?

21 analysts rate RVLV, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $30.

What does Revolve Group, Inc. do?REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium...

REVOLVE is the next-generation fashion retailer for Millennial and Generation Z consumers. As a trusted premium lifestyle brand and a go-to online source for discovery and inspiration, we deliver exceptional service and an engaging customer experience with a vast yet curated offering totaling over 140,000 apparel and footwear styles, as well as beauty and accessories.

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