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Vera Therapeutics, Inc. (VERA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.02: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 8.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.50; Below-average business quality.

Vera Therapeutics is a late clinical-stage biotech developing atacicept (TACI-Fc fusion protein targeting BAFF and APRIL) for IgAN. A BLA was submitted November 2025 with priority review granted and PDUFA date July 7, 2026. The company had $714.6M in cash as of December 31, 2025... Read more

$36.02+91.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#98 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $34.60Target $68.73(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 8.4:1
Analyst target$79.00+119.3%14 analysts
$68.73our TP
$36.02price
$79.00mean
$110

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.02: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 8.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: product candidates
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.8
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA-6.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-50.7%
Rev Growth
Beta1.17
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C7.50bearish
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$25-30.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineproduct candidates
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the success of our product candidates.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    Christopher Hite appointed to Board as Class III Director effective March 5, 2026. Granted initial stock option for 24,937 shares at $38.85. Routine board expansion; no departure involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
9.4
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 10)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 5 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.4
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 8.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
10 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.67Resistance $47.00

Price Targets

$35
$69
A.Upside+90.8%
A.R:R8.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VERA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.02: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 8.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $34.60. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VERA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.73 (+91.0% upside). Prior stop was $34.60. Stop-loss: $34.60.

What are the risks of investing in VERA?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: product candidates; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is VERA overvalued or undervalued?

Vera Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VERA?

20 analysts cover VERA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Vera Therapeutics, Inc. do?Vera Therapeutics is a late clinical-stage biotech developing atacicept (TACI-Fc fusion protein targeting BAFF and...

Vera Therapeutics is a late clinical-stage biotech developing atacicept (TACI-Fc fusion protein targeting BAFF and APRIL) for IgAN. A BLA was submitted November 2025 with priority review granted and PDUFA date July 7, 2026. The company had $714.6M in cash as of December 31, 2025 and has never generated product revenue.

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