Value
5.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
USLM · Why this verdict
Why United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United States Lime and Minerals is a high-quality building materials company with 35% net margins, a top-ranked return on equity versus peers, and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9 — but 3 consecutive earnings misses and a news modifier pulling the outlook negative reduce the near-term setup quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a PEG ratio of 0.49, the stock appears reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth potential, and analyst price targets imply 25% upside from current levels even after a period of earnings softness. Valuation breakdown | The price should rise to at least $117 within 12 months, consistent with analyst consensus targets, as earnings normalize. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 0.49 reflects low current earnings expectations that may not recover if revenue continues declining, making the apparent valuation attractiveness more dependent on a growth recovery that has not yet arrived. | ||
United States Lime and Minerals generates 35% net margins and ranks among the best-performing companies in its peer group on both return on equity and margin quality, reflecting pricing power in lime and limestone markets. Quality breakdown | Net margins should remain above 25% over the next 12 months as the company maintains its pricing position in lime markets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow at only 42% of net income is flagged as a concern, suggesting a portion of reported margins is not converting to spendable cash, which may indicate working capital or capital expenditure intensity. | ||
United States Lime missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 2.9%, suggesting analysts have been systematically too optimistic about the company's near-term earnings trajectory. Earnings | The company should return to beating estimates in at least 1 of the next 2 reported quarters as forecasts are reset to more realistic levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue declined approximately 4% year-over-year, and the earnings miss pattern may reflect genuine top-line softness that persists until construction and infrastructure demand recovers. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average but showing MACD improvement, rising on-balance volume, and a mid-range RSI of 52, indicating early signs of recovery from a downtrend while momentum scores remain solid. Momentum breakdown | The price should recross above its 200-day moving average and sustain that level for at least 30 days within the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeing below the 200-day moving average with a flat slope has previously been the entry point for extended bear phases in cyclical materials stocks, and the death cross formation is a formal technical warning. | ||
With a PEG ratio of 0.49, the stock appears reasonably priced relative to its earnings growth potential, and analyst price targets imply 25% upside from current levels even after a period of earnings softness.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should rise to at least $117 within 12 months, consistent with analyst consensus targets, as earnings normalize.
CounterA PEG of 0.49 reflects low current earnings expectations that may not recover if revenue continues declining, making the apparent valuation attractiveness more dependent on a growth recovery that has not yet arrived.
United States Lime and Minerals generates 35% net margins and ranks among the best-performing companies in its peer group on both return on equity and margin quality, reflecting pricing power in lime and limestone markets.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins should remain above 25% over the next 12 months as the company maintains its pricing position in lime markets.
CounterFree cash flow at only 42% of net income is flagged as a concern, suggesting a portion of reported margins is not converting to spendable cash, which may indicate working capital or capital expenditure intensity.
United States Lime missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 2.9%, suggesting analysts have been systematically too optimistic about the company's near-term earnings trajectory.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to beating estimates in at least 1 of the next 2 reported quarters as forecasts are reset to more realistic levels.
CounterRevenue declined approximately 4% year-over-year, and the earnings miss pattern may reflect genuine top-line softness that persists until construction and infrastructure demand recovers.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average but showing MACD improvement, rising on-balance volume, and a mid-range RSI of 52, indicating early signs of recovery from a downtrend while momentum scores remain solid.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should recross above its 200-day moving average and sustain that level for at least 30 days within the next 12 months.
CounterBeing below the 200-day moving average with a flat slope has previously been the entry point for extended bear phases in cyclical materials stocks, and the death cross formation is a formal technical warning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.7 |
| ROA | 9.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.9 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 37% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 78 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 3.7 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.6>=7.5+momentum=7.5>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-7.3%
Downside
14.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of -0.50.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Momentum at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Catalyst at 4.1, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Technical Recovery Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice declines to below $102.63, more than 7% below the current $110.35.
- P4Valuation Growth Ratio
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $105, less than 5% above the current $110.35.