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UPBUpstream Bio, Inc.Sell5.6·$7.51+3.16%
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Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.51: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders. It offers verekitug, which is in Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and... Read more

$7.51+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#53 of 258 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-22.10%
Stop $6.98Target $7.62(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$38.25+409.3%8 analysts
$7.62our TP
$7.51price
$38.25mean
$75

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.51: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $38.25 vs price $7.51 — ratio 5.1×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.8%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-2.6
Mkt Cap$409M
EV/EBITDA-0.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-41.8%
Rev Growth82.7%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
1.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.9
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
6.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2719% of revenueRule of 40: -2636 (fail)
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.85Resistance $7.78

Price Targets

$7
$8
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $38.25 vs price $7.51 — ratio 5.1×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.8%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.51: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $6.98. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.62 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $6.98. Stop-loss: $6.98.

What are the risks of investing in UPB?

DATA_ISSUE: analyst_target_implausible (raw $38.25 vs price $7.51 — ratio 5.1×). Rejected, falling back to technical TP.; Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -39.8%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is UPB overvalued or undervalued?

Upstream Bio, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -2.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPB?

12 analysts cover UPB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Upstream Bio, Inc. do?Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on...

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases focusing on severe respiratory disorders. It offers verekitug, which is in Phase 2 trials for the treatment of severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and in Phase I clinical trial for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

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