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Unum Group (UNM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.89: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.45; Below-average business quality.

Unum Group is a leading provider of employee benefits insurance in the US and UK, offering disability, life, accident, critical illness, dental, and vision products marketed primarily through the workplace. Premium income is split approximately 65% from Unum US, 17% from... Read more

$80.89+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 15 Insurance - Life
Stop $77.75Target $81.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$93.46+15.5%13 analysts
$81.31our TP
$80.89price
$93.46mean
$113

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.89: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$13.1B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta0.18
Dividend2.36%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.45bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$55-32.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.8
Gross Margin
1.9
Roe
2.2
Net Margin
2.8
Operating Margin
3.3
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -432% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.85Resistance $81.89

Price Targets

$78
$81
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $80.89: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $77.75. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.31 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $77.75. Stop-loss: $77.75.

What are the risks of investing in UNM?

Target reached (0.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).

Is UNM overvalued or undervalued?

Unum Group trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNM?

18 analysts cover UNM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Unum Group do?Unum Group is a leading provider of employee benefits insurance in the US and UK, offering disability, life, accident,...

Unum Group is a leading provider of employee benefits insurance in the US and UK, offering disability, life, accident, critical illness, dental, and vision products marketed primarily through the workplace. Premium income is split approximately 65% from Unum US, 17% from Colonial Life, 10% from Unum International (UK/Poland), and 8% from the Closed Block; the company operates in the US, UK, and Poland.

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