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Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (TVTX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.95; Below-average business quality.

Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI (sparsentan) FDA-approved in September 2024 for IgAN and Thiola for cystinuria. Revenue is earned from FILSPARI and Thiola product sales in the U.S.; the company relies on... Read more

$41.99+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#22 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $39.09Target $43.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$49.57+18.1%14 analysts
$43.13our TP
$41.99price
$49.57mean
$40
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.9Qual3.1Grw10.0Mom6.5Sent8.2Ins3.4Peer4.0Tech4.5Risk2.95.9OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: FILSPARI
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola
Target reached (2.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA-1780.3
Profit Mgn-5.2%
ROE-57.8%
Rev Growth73.4%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.95bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$15-64.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductFILSPARI
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to generate significant product revenues...will depend almost entirely on our ability to successfully commercialize our products in the United States, including FILSPARI'
  • HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have no manufacturing capabilities and rely on third-party manufacturers who are currently sole source suppliers for manufacturing of FILSPARI and Thiola'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.3
Short Interest
1.7
Debt Equity
2.1
Implied Vol
3.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
4.9
Beta
7.8
High short interest justified: 18%Elevated put/call: 1.95High IV: 62%Above max pain $15Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.2
Current Ratio
9.2
Cash-burning: FCF -8% of revenueNo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
77 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.29Resistance $43.31

Price Targets

$39
$43
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TVTX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.09. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TVTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.13 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $39.09. Stop-loss: $39.09.

What are the risks of investing in TVTX?

Concentration risk — Product: FILSPARI; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers for FILSPARI and Thiola; Target reached (2.6% upside).

Is TVTX overvalued or undervalued?

Travere Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TVTX?

21 analysts cover TVTX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Travere Therapeutics, Inc. do?Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI...

Travere Therapeutics is a rare disease biopharmaceutical company focused on kidney disorders, with FILSPARI (sparsentan) FDA-approved in September 2024 for IgAN and Thiola for cystinuria. Revenue is earned from FILSPARI and Thiola product sales in the U.S.; the company relies on sole-source third-party manufacturers with no in-house manufacturing.

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