Skip to main content

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. (TRVI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality.

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes investigational therapy for the treatment of chronic cough in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and non-IPF interstitial lung disease, and refractory chronic cough.... Read more

$13.29+43.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#54 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $12.39Target $19.06(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$21.91+64.9%11 analysts
$19.06our TP
$13.29price
$21.91mean
$27

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-24.5
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-32.3
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-30.2%
Rev Growth
Beta1.00
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.32bearish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$8-39.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.27Resistance $16.12

Price Targets

$12
$19
A.Upside+43.4%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRVI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.39. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRVI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.06 (+43.1% upside). Prior stop was $12.39. Stop-loss: $12.39.

What are the risks of investing in TRVI?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap).

Is TRVI overvalued or undervalued?

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRVI?

18 analysts cover TRVI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. do?Trevi Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes investigational...

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes investigational therapy for the treatment of chronic cough in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and non-IPF interstitial lung disease, and refractory chronic cough. The company develops Haduvio, an oral extended-release formulation of nalbuphine, which is in phase 2b Cough Reduction in IPF with nalbuphine ER clinical trial for treatment of chronic cough in patients with IPF, and phase 2a clinical trial in patients with refractory chronic cough. Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. has a license agreement with Keenova Therapeutics plc to develop and commercialize products incorporating nalbuphine hydrochloride in various formulations. Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut.

Related stocks: INCY (Incyte Corporation) · NVAX (Novavax, Inc.) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc)