Tutor Perini has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and trades at a PEG of 0.04 with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x, while analysts see 48% upside to approximately $96. However, 75% revenue concentration in government customers creates binary risk around contract awards and funding continuity, and a single quarter miss of -41% shows earnings volatility can be severe.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Government Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Deep Value With Analyst Upside→Stable
- Strong Free Cash Conversion Signal→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $83.13: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
Tutor Perini is a general contracting and construction management company with three segments—Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors—executing large infrastructure projects across the U.S. Government customers contributed 75% of 2025 revenue, and the company held a $20.6... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $83.13: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About Tutor Perini Corporation
About Tutor Perini Corporation
Tutor Perini Corporation entered 2026 with a project backlog of $20.6 billion as of December 31, 2025—49% in its Civil segment, 36% in Building, and 15% in Specialty Contractors—with approximately $6 billion, or 29%, expected to convert to revenue in 2026. International operations contributed $489.7 million, or 9%, of 2025 revenue, concentrated in Guam and the Asia-Pacific region. Government entities represented 86% of backlog by customer type and 75% of 2025 revenue. The company performed work on approximately 1,600 construction projects during 2025.
Tutor Perini's revenue model is almost entirely fixed-price government contracting: 79% of backlog as of December 31, 2025 consisted of fixed-price contracts and 13% guaranteed maximum price, with state and local agencies representing 78% of backlog by customer type. The Civil segment—focused on mass transit, tunneling, bridges, and military facilities—competes with FlatironDragados USA, Kiewit Corporation, Lane Construction Corporation, Skanska USA, and The Walsh Group. The Building segment serves hospitality and gaming, healthcare, detention, and government facilities markets; the Specialty Contractors segment provides electrical and mechanical services internally to Civil and Building projects through subsidiaries including Five Star Electric in the greater New York City metropolitan region and Fisk Electric in the southwestern and southern United States. This vertical integration—encompassing earthwork, concrete forming, steel erection, electrical, mechanical, plumbing, and HVAC—allows the company to self-perform a higher proportion of project components than competitors and supports bidding on the largest fixed-price civil infrastructure awards.
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Government-contract concentration defines Tutor Perini's risk profile. With 86% of its $20.6 billion backlog held by government entities and government customers contributing 75% of 2025 revenue, the company depends on sustained public infrastructure appropriations. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law's funding window closes September 30, 2026; the 10-K notes Congress had not yet committed to replacement legislation as of the filing date, introducing award-volume uncertainty beyond that date. The fixed-price structure amplifies this exposure: an October 2024 adverse arbitration ruling on a completed California bridge project produced a non-cash charge of $101.6 million, illustrating how scope disputes on fixed-price government contracts can generate significant losses years after project completion.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From Tutor Perini Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Tutor Perini Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Tutor Perini stock faces board reset after Feltenstein move - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Here is What to Know Beyond Why Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is a Trending Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TPC Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 1.63B USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Can Upcoming Earnings Alter The Investment Case For Tutor Perini Stock? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TPC Stock Price, Chart, and Forecast - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomergovernment customers75%10-K Item 1: 'Revenue derived from federal, state and local government customers as a percentage of our total revenue was 75% in 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicNew York and California10-K Item 1A: 'we are more susceptible to adverse economic conditions in New York and California, as a significant portion of our operations are concentrated in those states'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWOn May 20, 2026, Tutor Perini's Compensation Committee approved a Deferred Compensation Plan allowing eligible employees, including named executive officers, to defer salaries, bonuses, and equity awards. Plan intended to comply with Section 409A. No officer departure or change of control disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $83.13: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $77.31. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $98.81 (+18.9% upside). Prior stop was $77.31. Stop-loss: $77.31.
Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Tutor Perini Corporation trades at a P/E of 35.8 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts rate TPC, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $116.
What does Tutor Perini Corporation do?Tutor Perini is a general contracting and construction management company with three segments—Civil, Building, and...
Tutor Perini is a general contracting and construction management company with three segments—Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors—executing large infrastructure projects across the U.S. Government customers contributed 75% of 2025 revenue, and the company held a $20.6 billion project backlog as of December 31, 2025. Vertical integration through in-house electrical, mechanical, and plumbing subsidiaries allows Tutor Perini to self-perform more project components than competitors.