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Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $76.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (backlog) (86.0%).

Tutor Perini is a leading US general contractor with Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors segments executing large, complex infrastructure and building projects primarily for government clients. Federal, state, and local government customers accounted for 75% of 2025... Read more

$76.46+26.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#16 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield15.87%
IncomeYield0.30%(5y avg 3.45%)Payout8.22%sustainable
Stop $74.04Target $96.26(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$113.25+48.1%4 analysts
$96.26our TP
$76.46price
$113.25mean
$125

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $76.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (backlog) (86.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tutor Perini Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (backlog) (86.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)54.4
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta2.19
Dividend0.30%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomergovernment customers75%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue derived from federal, state and local government customers as a percentage of our total revenue was 75% in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomergovernment entities (backlog)86%
    10-K Item 1A: 'The percentage of our business coming from government entities has continued to increase in recent years, and as of December 31, 2025 accounted for 86% of our backlog.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicNew York and California
    10-K Item 1A: 'we are more susceptible to adverse economic conditions in New York and California, as a significant portion of our operations are concentrated in those states.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.2
Growth Rank
3.7
Value Rank
5.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 30.0%
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $76.33Resistance $100.00

Price Targets

$74
$96
A.Upside+25.9%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $76.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (backlog) (86.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $74.04. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.26 (+26.0% upside). Prior stop was $74.04. Stop-loss: $74.04.

What are the risks of investing in TPC?

Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government entities (backlog) (86.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

Is TPC overvalued or undervalued?

Tutor Perini Corporation trades at a P/E of 54.4 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TPC?

9 analysts cover TPC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Tutor Perini Corporation do?Tutor Perini is a leading US general contractor with Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors segments executing...

Tutor Perini is a leading US general contractor with Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors segments executing large, complex infrastructure and building projects primarily for government clients. Federal, state, and local government customers accounted for 75% of 2025 revenue and 86% of the $20.6B backlog. Operations are concentrated in New York and California.

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