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Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag (rolling papers, MYO cigar wraps) and Stoker's (moist snuff, chewing tobacco) through ~220,000 North American retail outlets. Tobacco products comprised ~62% of 2025... Read more

$89.14+26.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#4 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.97%
IncomeYield0.35%(5y avg 0.70%)Payout10.45%sustainable
Stop $82.90Target $113.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$130.00+45.8%5 analysts
$113.10our TP
$89.14price
$130.00mean
$140

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.5
P/E (Fwd)31.2
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth16.8%
Beta0.93
Dividend0.35%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$45-49.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.1
Bollinger
3.0
Support Resistance
3.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
6.7
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $68.08Resistance $98.86

Price Targets

$83
$113
A.Upside+26.9%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $113.10 (+26.9%), stop $82.90 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $113.10 (+26.9% upside). Target $113.10 (+26.9%), stop $82.90 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $82.90.

What are the risks of investing in TPB?

Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is TPB overvalued or undervalued?

Turning Point Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.5 (forward 31.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TPB?

9 analysts cover TPB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $130.

What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag...

Turning Point Brands manufactures and distributes branded tobacco and alternative smoking products under Zig-Zag (rolling papers, MYO cigar wraps) and Stoker's (moist snuff, chewing tobacco) through ~220,000 North American retail outlets. Tobacco products comprised ~62% of 2025 net sales; ~75% of net sales came from outsourced production. All loose-leaf chewing tobacco is manufactured by Swedish Match and all Zig-Zag cigarette papers are sourced from RTI.

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