Turning Point Brands has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 16%, carries a wide economic moat score of 7.5 out of 10, and analysts see 58% upside potential, yet the stock is in a confirmed death cross downtrend with an RSI of 35 and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.69, creating a wide gap between fundamental value and current market sentiment.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Wide Economic Moat With Beat Streak→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Gap↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum.
Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and chewing tobacco, distributing to approximately 220,000 retail locations across North America. Revenue is driven by branded consumer products through... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 11, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Turning Point Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) Q1 2026 Earnings: Profit Beats Estimates, Stock Gains - Earnings Yield Analysis - dars.g — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS TPB|Turning Point Brands Inc|Price:73.500|Chg%:-2.930 - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS TPB|Turning Point Brands Inc|Price:73.500|Chg%:-2.930 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Turning Point Brands (TPB) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 11, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $103.09 (+68.7%), stop $56.83 (−7.5%), A.R:R 7.1:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $103.09 (+68.7% upside). Target $103.09 (+68.7%), stop $56.83 (−7.5%), A.R:R 7.1:1. Stop-loss: $56.83.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Turning Point Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts cover TPB with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $119.
What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and...
Turning Point Brands markets Zig-Zag® rolling papers, cigar wraps, and accessories alongside Stoker's® moist snuff and chewing tobacco, distributing to approximately 220,000 retail locations across North America. Revenue is driven by branded consumer products through approximately 900 distributors; tobacco products represented approximately 62% of total 2025 net sales. Swedish Match and RTI are sole suppliers for loose-leaf tobacco and Zig-Zag® cigarette papers respectively, under long-term exclusive agreements.