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Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $78.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker's Products. Its Zig-Zag Products segment markets... Read more

$78.56+42.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 6 Tobacco
Stop $73.05Target $111.56(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$131.25+67.1%4 analysts
$111.56our TP
$78.56price
$131.25mean
$140

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $78.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn12.6%
ROE24.2%
Rev Growth29.2%
Beta1.03
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV88%elevated
Max Pain$50-36.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.7
Support Resistance
3.8
Bollinger
4.6
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $68.08Resistance $84.94

Price Targets

$73
$112
A.Upside+42.0%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $78.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $111.56 (+42.0%), stop $73.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $111.56 (+42.0% upside). Target $111.56 (+42.0%), stop $73.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $73.05.

What are the risks of investing in TPB?

Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is TPB overvalued or undervalued?

Turning Point Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TPB?

9 analysts cover TPB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $131.

What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer...

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker's Products. Its Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products, as well as lighters and other accessories under the Zig-Zag brand. The Stoker's Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker's, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands. In addition, the company markets and distributes cannabis accessories and tobacco products. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, drug store, and non-traditional retail channels. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

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