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TKTeekay Corporation Ltd.Hold7.0·$15.56
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Teekay Corporation combines high quality, an attractive valuation, and strong growth with a flagged cyclical-trap warning, extreme insider selling, and a failed momentum gate, leading the engine to recommend reducing rather than adding to the position.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Growth Business→Stable
  • Cyclical Trap Valuation Warning↑Improving
  • Extreme Insider Selling→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (-0.4% away).

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support... Read more

$15.56+15.0% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#8 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.25%
Stop $14.50Target $17.89(default +15%)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (-0.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.15, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak)
Near 52-week high (-0.4% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)35.5
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE27.1%
Rev Growth43.5%
Beta0.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)INSIDER 0.19%=MODERATEMomentum 6.6>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
80 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.25Resistance $15.90

Price Targets

$15
$18
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 36x vs trail 7x (4.8x)
! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (-0.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.15, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $17.89 (+15.0%), stop $14.50 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.0/10, high confidence.

What is the TK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.89 (+15.0% upside). Target $17.89 (+15.0%), stop $14.50 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $14.50.

What are the risks of investing in TK?

Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (-0.4% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is TK overvalued or undervalued?

Teekay Corporation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 35.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TK?

9 analysts cover TK with a consensus score of 2.0/5.

What does Teekay Corporation Ltd. do?Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company...

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support services; tanker commercial management operation services; technical management; and operational and maintenance marine services. It operates a fleet of 34 double-hull tankers. It serves energy and utility companies, oil traders, oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. The company was formerly known as Teekay Corporation and changed its name to Teekay Corporation Ltd. in October 2024. Teekay Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: TEN (Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd) · DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.) · TRMD (TORM plc) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.) · INSW (International Seaways, Inc.)
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