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TKTeekay Corporation Ltd.Hold6.9·$13.52
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Teekay Corporation combines high quality, an attractive valuation, and strong growth with a flagged cyclical-trap warning, extreme insider selling, and a failed momentum gate, leading the engine to recommend reducing rather than adding to the position.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Growth BusinessStable
  • Cyclical Trap Valuation WarningImproving
  • Extreme Insider SellingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support... Read more

$13.52+8.2% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#8 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.37%
Stop $12.57Target $14.63(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.13, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-23

Recent Developments — Teekay Corporation Ltd.

Generated 2026-09-23T22:42:02Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.7
P/E (Fwd)32.0
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE27.1%
Rev Growth43.5%
Beta0.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C4.91bearish
IV40%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.14Resistance $14.93

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 32x vs trail 7x (4.8x)
! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.13, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $14.63 (+8.2%), stop $12.57 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.

What is the TK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.63 (+8.2% upside). Target $14.63 (+8.2%), stop $12.57 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $12.57.

What are the risks of investing in TK?

Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is TK overvalued or undervalued?

Teekay Corporation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TK?

9 analysts cover TK with a consensus score of 2.0/5.

What does Teekay Corporation Ltd. do?Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company...

Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers. The company also offers ship-to-ship support services; tanker commercial management operation services; technical management; and operational and maintenance marine services. It operates a fleet of 34 double-hull tankers. It serves energy and utility companies, oil traders, oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. The company was formerly known as Teekay Corporation and changed its name to Teekay Corporation Ltd. in October 2024. Teekay Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Related stocks: TEN (Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd) · TRMD (TORM plc) · TNK (Teekay Tankers Ltd.) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.) · DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.)
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