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TDWTidewater Inc.Sell5.3·$70.99-4.52%
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Tidewater Inc. (TDW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. At $70.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Product: PSVs (72.3%).

Tidewater provides offshore vessel services to the global oil and gas and offshore wind industries, operating 208 vessels across five geographic segments—Americas, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Europe/Mediterranean, and West Africa. Revenue comes primarily from PSV time-charter day... Read more

$70.99+6.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#19 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield10.42%
Stop $68.78Target $75.32(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$86.57+21.9%7 analysts
$75.32our TP
$70.99price
$86.57mean
$54
$117

Sell if holding. At $70.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Product: PSVs (72.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: PSVs (72.3%)
Thin upside margin: 6.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.5
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE24.0%
Rev Growth-43.1%
Beta0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$130+83.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductPSVs72%
    10-K Item 1: 'our PSVs contributed approximately 72.3% of our vessel revenue.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers48%
    10-K Item 1: 'our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 47.9% of our total revenues.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-19Item 5.02LOW
    Director Darron M. Anderson notified the Board on March 17, 2026 of his intent not to stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. Board size will reduce from 8 to 7 directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -43.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
3.1
Declining revenue: -43%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.6
Quality Rank
9.0
Attractive P/E vs peersSuperior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $70.91Resistance $86.73

Price Targets

$69
$75
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $70.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Product: PSVs (72.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.78. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.32 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $68.78. Stop-loss: $68.78.

What are the risks of investing in TDW?

Concentration risk — Product: PSVs (72.3%); Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is TDW overvalued or undervalued?

Tidewater Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TDW?

13 analysts cover TDW with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $87.

What does Tidewater Inc. do?Tidewater provides offshore vessel services to the global oil and gas and offshore wind industries, operating 208...

Tidewater provides offshore vessel services to the global oil and gas and offshore wind industries, operating 208 vessels across five geographic segments—Americas, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Europe/Mediterranean, and West Africa. Revenue comes primarily from PSV time-charter day rates (72.3% of 2025 vessel revenue), with the ten largest customers representing 47.9% of total revenues.

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