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SVRASavara, Inc.Sell4.7·$5.51-0.18%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Savara is a pre-revenue biotechnology company in a golden cross breakout with 78% analyst price target upside, but quality scores only 1.6 out of 10 with fully negative free cash flow and a put/call ratio of 28.33 — the highest in this group — signaling extreme options market bearishness despite the bullish technical setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Put Call Bearish SignalImproving
  • Bullish Breakout Technical SetupDeteriorating
  • Quality Below Floor Cash BurnStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Savara, Inc. (SVRA) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5ShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.51: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Savara is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing MOLBREEVI, an inhaled GM-CSF biologic and its sole product candidate, for autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis, a rare lung disease with no FDA-approved treatments. The company has no approved products or... Read more

$5.51+72.4% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#201 of 254 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-5.10%
Stop $5.21Target $9.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.4:1
Analyst target$10.94+98.5%8 analysts
$9.52our TP
$5.51price
$10.94mean
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.51: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-20
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.09% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-18.8
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA-9.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-80.0%
Rev Growth
Beta0.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.1
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.5
Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5INSIDER 0.20%=MODERATEA.R:R 7.4 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.37Resistance $6.47

Price Targets

$5
$10
A.Upside+72.4%
A.R:R7.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.09% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SVRA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.51: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.21. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SVRA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.52 (+72.4% upside). Prior stop was $5.21. Stop-loss: $5.21.

What are the risks of investing in SVRA?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.8%), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.09% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is SVRA overvalued or undervalued?

Savara, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SVRA?

14 analysts cover SVRA with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Savara, Inc. do?Savara is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing MOLBREEVI, an inhaled GM-CSF biologic and its sole...

Savara is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing MOLBREEVI, an inhaled GM-CSF biologic and its sole product candidate, for autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis, a rare lung disease with no FDA-approved treatments. The company has no approved products or commercial revenue; the FDA formally filed Savara's resubmitted Biologics License Application for MOLBREEVI in February 2026 and granted Priority Review. Savara outsources manufacturing to third-party partners including Fujifilm for drug substance and PARI for its proprietary nebulizer delivery device.

Related stocks: CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc)
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