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Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. At $121.94, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Sun Communities is a self-administered REIT owning 513 MH, RV, and UK holiday park communities with 178,650 developed sites across the U.S., Canada, and UK as of December 31, 2025. Revenue derives from leasing individual sites to residents and guests, with home sales through its... Read more

$121.94+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#4 of 16 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.37%
IncomeYield3.49%(5y avg 2.63%)Payout452.82%
Stop $117.42Target $128.55(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$142.83+17.1%18 analysts
$128.55our TP
$121.94price
$142.83mean
$155

Sell if holding. At $121.94, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Sun Communities, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)43.5
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA18.5
Profit Mgn59.7%
ROE0.3%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.49%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV33%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida26%
    10-K Item 1A: '125 of our MH, RV, and UK communities, representing 26.4% of developed sites, are located in Florida'
  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan19%
    10-K Item 1A: '89 communities, representing 19.4% of developed sites, are located in Michigan'
  • LOWGeographicUK12%
    10-K Item 1A: '53 communities, representing 12.1% of developed sites, are located in the UK'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 4.01HIGH
    Deloitte & Touche LLP appointed as new independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, effective upon filing of Q1 2026 10-Q. No disagreement with prior auditor cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-09Item 5.02LOW
    John B. McLaren (current President, 24-year company veteran) appointed Chief Operating Officer effective March 9, 2026, assuming additional operational responsibilities. Clean internal appointment; no vacancy created.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02HIGH
    Fernando Castro-Caratini appointed interim CFO effective February 4, 2026. Company initiated broad, comprehensive search for permanent CFO. No permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $120.19Resistance $130.41

Price Targets

$117
$129
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SUI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $121.94, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $117.42. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SUI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.55 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $117.42. Stop-loss: $117.42.

What are the risks of investing in SUI?

Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Negative momentum.

Is SUI overvalued or undervalued?

Sun Communities, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 43.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SUI?

21 analysts cover SUI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $143.

What does Sun Communities, Inc. do?Sun Communities is a self-administered REIT owning 513 MH, RV, and UK holiday park communities with 178,650 developed...

Sun Communities is a self-administered REIT owning 513 MH, RV, and UK holiday park communities with 178,650 developed sites across the U.S., Canada, and UK as of December 31, 2025. Revenue derives from leasing individual sites to residents and guests, with home sales through its SHS subsidiary supporting occupancy.

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