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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and... Read more

$11.41+38.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.49%
Stop $10.68Target $15.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$18.10+58.6%10 analysts
$15.75our TP
$11.41price
$18.10mean
$39

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — The Simply Good Foods Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn-7.5%
ROE-6.4%
Rev Growth-9.4%
Beta0.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV65%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
4.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.01Resistance $13.86

Price Targets

$11
$16
A.Upside+38.0%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMPL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.41 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $10.68. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.75 (+38.0% upside). Prior stop was $10.68. Stop-loss: $10.68.

What are the risks of investing in SMPL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is SMPL overvalued or undervalued?

The Simply Good Foods Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMPL?

19 analysts cover SMPL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.

What does The Simply Good Foods Company do?The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing,...

The Simply Good Foods Company, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. The company offers protein bars, ready-to-drink beverages and shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, muffins, protein chips and crackers, protein powders, and recipes under the Quest, Atkins, and OWYN brand names. It also provides confectionery products, such as peanut butter cups, brownies, caramel candy bites, chocolatey coated peanut candies, and caramel candy bars. In addition, the company licenses certain products that contain its brands and logos; and distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug stores, club and convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including questnutrition.com, atkins.com, liveowyn.com, amazon.com and others. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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