Simply Good Foods trades at a forward P/E of 7.1x with a PEG of 0.03, offering deep value ahead of an imminent earnings event where the company has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, though a confirmed price downtrend and high short interest of 12% present meaningful near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value At 7x Forward Earnings↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Streak Near Catalyst↓Deteriorating
- Price Downtrend Technical Headwind↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Oct 27, 2026· older than 90 days
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of retailers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Simply Good Foods sells protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes, snacks and confectionery under the Quest, Atkins and OWYN brands, primarily in North America. Products reach consumers through grocery, club, mass, drug, convenience and e-commerce channels; Walmart was about... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of retailers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About The Simply Good Foods Company
About The Simply Good Foods Company
Walmart Inc. generated approximately 30% of Simply Good Foods' consolidated sales in fiscal 2026, split between roughly 24% through mass retail and e-commerce and 6% through Sam's Club, while Amazon added approximately 20%. The Denver-based company sells protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes, snacks and confectionery under the Quest, Atkins and OWYN brands, primarily in North America, and acquired OWYN in June 2024.
Each brand serves a distinct nutrition philosophy. Quest targets consumers seeking protein-rich foods and beverages that limit sugars and simple carbohydrates, Atkins targets those following a low-carbohydrate lifestyle or managing weight or blood sugar, and OWYN offers plant-based protein beverages and powders tested for the top nine allergens. The company was formed in March 2017 to acquire Atkins, completed that purchase in July 2017, and added Quest in November 2019. Products are sold through mass merchandise, grocery, drug, club, small format and e-commerce channels, including questnutrition.com, Atkins.com, liveowyn.com and Amazon.com. The filing refers to contract manufacturers and to third-party suppliers of ingredients and packaging as key business partners. Marketing includes coupons, sampling, television, online and print advertising, and 48% of selling and marketing expenses in the fifty-two weeks ended August 29, 2026 went to advertising. Retailer relationships run on at-will contracts that carry no recurring or minimum purchase amounts.
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Channel concentration is the sharpest exposure. The 10-K states that a substantial majority of sales come from a limited number of retailers and that no other customer exceeds 10% of consolidated sales, so a decision by a major retailer to reduce shelf space, change reset timing or pull back on promotions could weigh on results, particularly because the contracts do not require minimum purchases. Geography compounds this: the company operates mainly in North America, which could expose it to regional regulation, consumer trends and ingredient supply shortages. Contract manufacturers were affected by labor availability during fiscal 2020 and 2021, showing how third-party production can disrupt supply.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The Simply Good Foods Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted November 1, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — The Simply Good Foods Company
Latest news
- NEWS Analysts Adjust Price Targets for The Simply Good Foods Company — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Jefferies Downgrades Simply Good Foods to Hold, Lowers Price Target to $11 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why Simply Good Foods Slipped by Almost 2% on Friday - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Jul 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) Given Consensus Rating of "Hold" by Brokerages - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Jul 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Jul 9, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart Inc.30%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our largest retailer, Walmart Inc., represented approximately 30% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2026'
- LOWCustomerAmazon20%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our next largest retailer, Amazon, represented approximately 20% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2026'
- HIGHCustomerlimited number of retailers10-K Item 1: 'A substantial majority of our sales are generated from a limited number of retailers.'
- MEDIUMGeographicNorth America10-K Item 1A: 'We operate mainly in North America and, therefore, are particularly susceptible to adverse regulations, economic climate, consumer trends'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of retailers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $10.44 reached (−21.4%), stop $12.36 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $10.44 reached (−21.4% from $13.29); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $10.44 reached (−21.4%), stop $12.36 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $12.36.
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of retailers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).
The Simply Good Foods Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
16 analysts rate SMPL, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $12.
What does The Simply Good Foods Company do?Simply Good Foods sells protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes, snacks and confectionery under the Quest, Atkins...
Simply Good Foods sells protein bars, ready-to-drink protein shakes, snacks and confectionery under the Quest, Atkins and OWYN brands, primarily in North America. Products reach consumers through grocery, club, mass, drug, convenience and e-commerce channels; Walmart was about 30% of fiscal 2026 sales and Amazon about 20%. The brands target protein-rich, low-sugar and plant-based allergen-aware eating.