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SiTime Corporation (SITM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $541.88: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

SiTime provides Precision Timing semiconductors (oscillators, clock ICs, resonators) to the global electronics industry for AI datacenter, communications, automotive, industrial, and IoT markets. Apple represented ~17% of 2025 revenue; top-3 distributors accounted for ~59%.... Read more

$541.88+6.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#24 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $503.95Target $579.31(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$495.56-8.5%9 analysts
$579.31our TP
$541.88price
$495.56mean
$400
$675

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $541.88: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top three distributors (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bosch and Teledyne
Target reached (-20.4% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)79.1
Mkt Cap$13.9B
EV/EBITDA-593.1
Profit Mgn-13.1%
ROE-4.6%
Rev Growth66.3%
Beta2.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV119%elevated
Max Pain$380-29.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop three distributors59%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three distributors by revenue together accounted for approximately 59%, 56%, and 51% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerApple17%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales attributable to Apple, our largest end customer accounted for approximately 17%, 22%, and 21% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierBosch and Teledyne
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently rely primarily on Bosch and Teledyne Digital Imaging Inc. ("Teledyne") for our MEMS fabrication, and primarily on TSMC and UMC for our analog circuits fabrication'
  • HIGHGeographicoutside the United States93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 93%, 92%, and 86% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively, was from distributors with ship-to locations outside the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 79.1xPEG: 0.16Expensive valuation

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.0
Fcf Quality
3.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
6.7
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 0.1%)No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $330.12Resistance $591.13

Price Targets

$504
$579
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SITM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $541.88: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $503.95. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SITM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $579.31 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $503.95. Stop-loss: $503.95.

What are the risks of investing in SITM?

Concentration risk — Customer: top three distributors (59.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bosch and Teledyne; Target reached (-20.4% upside).

Is SITM overvalued or undervalued?

SiTime Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 79.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SITM?

16 analysts cover SITM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $496.

What does SiTime Corporation do?SiTime provides Precision Timing semiconductors (oscillators, clock ICs, resonators) to the global electronics industry...

SiTime provides Precision Timing semiconductors (oscillators, clock ICs, resonators) to the global electronics industry for AI datacenter, communications, automotive, industrial, and IoT markets. Apple represented ~17% of 2025 revenue; top-3 distributors accounted for ~59%. Products rely on fabless manufacturing through Bosch (MEMS), TSMC, and UMC.

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