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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $75.27: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others,... Read more

$75.27+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#10 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $72.71Target $76.22(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $75.27: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.9), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.33% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta0.22
Dividend4.88%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$105+39.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
5.9
Value Rank
6.8
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.72Resistance $77.78

Price Targets

$73
$76
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $75.27: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $72.71. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAFT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.22 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $72.71. Stop-loss: $72.71.

What are the risks of investing in SAFT?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.9), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.33% of cap).

Is SAFT overvalued or undervalued?

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAFT?

6 analysts cover SAFT with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does Safety Insurance Group, Inc. do?Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in...

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

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