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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others,... Read more

$72.52+5.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#22 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield15.77%
IncomeYield5.07%(5y avg 4.55%)Payout86.52%at-risk
Stop $68.58Target $76.22(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Safety Insurance Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE7.4%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta0.24
Dividend5.07%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$65-10.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
4.1
Value Rank
4.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Roa
1.5
Current Ratio
1.5
Roe
2.5
Net Margin
2.5
Moat
3.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 266% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $68.90Resistance $77.78

Price Targets

$69
$76
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAFT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.52: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $68.58. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SAFT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.22 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $68.58. Stop-loss: $68.58.

What are the risks of investing in SAFT?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is SAFT overvalued or undervalued?

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAFT?

6 analysts cover SAFT with a consensus score of 2.2/5.

What does Safety Insurance Group, Inc. do?Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in...

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

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