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RYRoyal Bank Of CanadaHold5.1·$202.01-0.77%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Royal Bank of Canada has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.5%, leads its diversified banking peer group in revenue growth, and carries strong net margins of 34%, but the stock has already exceeded analyst consensus targets and sits at overbought levels with falling on-balance volume.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat And MarginsDeteriorating
  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • Price Above Analyst Target OverboughtDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Royal Bank Of Canada (RY) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $202.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Royal Bank of Canada operates as a diversified financial service company worldwide. Its Personal Banking segment offers home equity financing, personal lending, chequing and savings accounts, private banking, auto financing, mutual funds, GICs, credit cards, and payment products... Read more

$202.01-11.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#18 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.51%(5y avg 3.49%)Payout41.49%sustainable
Stop $195.99Target $208.12(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$209.79+3.9%3 analysts
$208.12our TP
$202.01price
$209.79mean
$182
$229

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $202.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-18
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$281.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.92
Dividend2.51%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.46bearish
IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
7.4
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $200.69Resistance $212.37

Price Targets

$196
$208
A.Upside-11.8%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.8% upside)
! News modifier suppressed: positive news (+2) cannot lift HOLD to buy-class with analyst upside -11.8% (lift floor +1.5%)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $202.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $208.12 (+3.0%), stop $195.99 (−3.1%), A.R:R -2.4:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $208.12 (-11.8% upside). Target $208.12 (+3.0%), stop $195.99 (−3.1%), A.R:R -2.4:1. Stop-loss: $195.99.

What are the risks of investing in RY?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative momentum.

Is RY overvalued or undervalued?

Royal Bank Of Canada trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about RY?

24 analysts cover RY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $210.

What does Royal Bank Of Canada do?Royal Bank of Canada operates as a diversified financial service company worldwide. Its Personal Banking segment offers...

Royal Bank of Canada operates as a diversified financial service company worldwide. Its Personal Banking segment offers home equity financing, personal lending, chequing and savings accounts, private banking, auto financing, mutual funds, GICs, credit cards, and payment products and solutions. The company's Commercial Banking segments provides lending, deposit and transaction banking products and services. Its Wealth Management segment provides a suite of wealth, investment, trust, banking, credit, and other solutions to clients; asset management products to institutional and individual clients; and asset and investor services to financial institutions, asset managers, and asset owners. The company's Insurance segment offers life, health, travel, wealth, annuities, property and casualty, and reinsurance advice and solutions; digital platforms; and independent brokers and partners, as well as client-led advice and solutions. The company's Capital Markets segment offers advisory and origination, sales and trading, lending and financing, and transaction banking services to corporations, institutional clients, asset managers, private equity firms, and governments. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · BCS (Barclays PLC) · MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group)
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