Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the RXRX stock price target?

Take-profit $5.78 (+95.3% upside). Prior stop was $2.75.

Q: What are the risks of investing in RXRX?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.17% of cap); Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.17% of cap).

Q: Is RXRX overvalued or undervalued?

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -3.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about RXRX?

14 analysts cover RXRX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $7.

Q: What does Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using an AI platform (Recursion OS) for drug discovery across biology, chemistry, and clinical development. Internal pipeline focuses on oncology and rare disease (e.g., REC-4881 in FAP, REC-617 in solid tumors). Revenue primarily comes from collaborations with Roche/Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer, and Merck KGaA, totaling >$500M to date.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 49 min ago (May 20, 2026, 5:12 PM ET)

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.95: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10 and A.R:R 7.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using an AI platform (Recursion OS) for drug discovery across biology, chemistry, and clinical development. Internal pipeline focuses on oncology and rare disease (e.g., REC-4881 in FAP, REC-617 in solid tumors).... Read more

$2.95+95.3% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#148 of 157 Biotechnology

QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-11.75%

Stop $2.75Target $5.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.9:1

Analyst target$6.64+125.2%7 analysts

$5.78our TP

$2.95price

$6.64mean

$10

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Latest news

Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Raises Price Target to $5.5 — benzinga May 14, 2026 positive
Recursion Eyes Breakthrough With REC-4881 Drug For Rare Genetic Condition, But Shares Pull Back — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
Needham Reiterates Buy on Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Maintains $8 Price Target — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Q1 EPS $(0.22) Beats $(0.27) Estimate, Sales $6.472M Miss $15.777M Estimate — benzinga May 6, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.17% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-3.2

Mkt Cap$1.5B

EV/EBITDA-1.9

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-57.2%

Rev Growth-56.1%

Beta1.05

DividendNone

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish

IV94%elevated

Max Pain$1-83.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHcounterpartyRoche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer
10-K Item 1A: 'operating revenue has primarily been generated through funded research and development agreements with Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
Vicki Goodman, M.D. appointed as Chief Medical Officer of Recursion effective April 6, 2026. David Mauro, M.D., Ph.D. transitions out with advisory capacity through May 29, 2026. Clean handoff with successor named.
SEC filing →
2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
Christopher Gibson, Board Chair of Recursion, will not stand for re-election as Class II director at 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company. Routine board transition.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.415%0.81

Quality1.515%0.22

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.210%0.22

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank1.710%0.17

Technical Setup5.45%0.27

Risk Profile2.55%0.13

Catalyst5.85%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)4.01

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Piotroski F

2.2

Moat

2.5

Current Ratio

7.5

Cash-burning: FCF -268% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

1.7

Growth Rank

1.8

Value Rank

2.3

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

3.0

Macd

3.0

Volume

3.1

Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 6.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover

0.0

Volatility

0.0

Implied Vol

0.0

Debt Equity

0.0

Short Interest

0.1

Max Pain Risk

3.0

Beta

6.8

Put Call

10.0

High short interest justified: 34%High IV: 94%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 7.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

29 · Oversold

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.77Resistance $3.71

Price Targets

A.Upside+95.9%

A.R:R7.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.17% of cap)

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is RXRX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.95: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10 and A.R:R 7.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 34%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $2.75. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RXRX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.78 (+95.3% upside). Prior stop was $2.75. Stop-loss: $2.75.

What are the risks of investing in RXRX?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer; Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -50.1%), High leverage (D/E 6.1), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.17% of cap).

Is RXRX overvalued or undervalued?

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -3.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RXRX?

14 analysts cover RXRX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using an AI platform (Recursion OS) for drug discovery...