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Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.52: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using its AI-native Recursion OS platform for drug discovery spanning biology, chemistry, and clinical development. Revenue is primarily from funded R&D collaboration agreements with Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and... Read more

$3.52+65.7% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#146 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $3.28Target $5.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$6.71+90.7%7 analysts
$5.84our TP
$3.52price
$6.71mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.52: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-3.6
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-1.9
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-59.5%
Rev Growth681.7%
Beta1.01
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV98%elevated
Max Pain$1-85.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRoche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer
    10-K Item 1A: 'our operating revenue has primarily been generated through funded research and development agreements with Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Vicki Goodman, M.D., appointed as Recursion's Chief Medical Officer effective April 6, 2026. David Mauro, M.D., Ph.D. transitions out and will serve as advisor through May 29, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
7.5
Cash-burning: FCF -279% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
6.9
Put Call
10.0
High short interest justified: 35%High IV: 98%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
3.9
Bollinger
4.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.8
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.8
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.93Resistance $3.90

Price Targets

$3
$6
A.Upside+65.9%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RXRX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.52: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 35%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $3.28. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RXRX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.84 (+65.7% upside). Prior stop was $3.28. Stop-loss: $3.28.

What are the risks of investing in RXRX?

Concentration risk — Customer: Roche and Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer; Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap).

Is RXRX overvalued or undervalued?

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -3.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RXRX?

14 analysts cover RXRX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using its AI-native Recursion OS platform for drug...

Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company using its AI-native Recursion OS platform for drug discovery spanning biology, chemistry, and clinical development. Revenue is primarily from funded R&D collaboration agreements with Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Bayer; accumulated deficit of $2.1B as of December 31, 2025.

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