Recursion Pharmaceuticals is an artificial intelligence-driven drug discovery company with analyst targets implying 102% upside and 3 of the last 4 quarters showing positive earnings surprises, but a confirmed death cross, 33% short interest, and near-zero quality scores reflect deep fundamental concerns about the pre-revenue business model.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Upside And Ai Discovery Platform↑Improving
- Improving Earnings Surprise Trend↑Improving
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.68: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 32%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company with an AI-native drug discovery platform (Recursion OS) and five wholly-owned clinical programs, with no products approved for commercial sale. Revenue derives from collaboration agreements with Roche, Genentech,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.68: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 32%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 112d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported an accumulated deficit of $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2025, reflecting its entirely pre-commercial stage: no products are approved for sale. The clinical pipeline includes five wholly-owned programs, with the Phase 1b/2 MEK1/2 inhibitor REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) representing the first clinical validation of the Recursion OS platform. The company has received over $500 million in partner payments from Roche, Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer, and Merck KGaA to date.
Recursion generates revenue through funded research and development collaboration agreements rather than product sales. Operating revenue has primarily come from agreements with Roche and Genentech ($213 million in upfront and milestone payments), Sanofi ($134 million including a $4 million fifth milestone achieved in February 2026), Takeda, and Bayer. The collaboration model provides near-term cash flows while the company advances internal programs across oncology and rare disease and builds pipelines for partners in oncology, neuroscience, and immunology. The Recursion OS synthesizes phenomics data from over 2 million experiments per week, AI-driven generative chemistry design — synthesizing approximately 90% fewer compounds than the industry average — and clinical development intelligence. Through the Roche and Genentech collaboration, six Phenomaps have been accepted, including a $30 million Microglia Map milestone in October 2025.
Show full overview
The binary risk in Recursion's portfolio centers on REC-4881, which delivered the first clinical validation of the Recursion OS with a median 43% polyp burden reduction at week 13 and 53% at week 25 in FAP patients. The company plans to engage with the FDA in the first half of 2026 to define a registration path while further optimizing dosing schedule in the ongoing TUPELO trial. In March 2026, Vicki Goodman, M.D. became Chief Medical Officer, succeeding David Mauro, M.D., Ph.D. — a transition disclosed via Form 8-K on March 25, 2026 — with Dr. Mauro continuing in an advisory capacity through May 2026, a leadership change that could affect clinical execution during this pivotal FDA engagement period.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Recursion Announces Positive Phase 2 Data for REC-4881 in TUPELO Trial — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Recursion Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Business Updates — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026
- NEWS Recursion Appoints Fred Hassan as Chair of the Board — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Recursion Pharmaceuticals Q3 EPS $(0.22), Inline, Sales $18.552M Beat $14.783M Estimate — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Recursion Says REC-4881 Cut Total Polyp Burden By Median 47% After 12 Weeks In 15-Patient Single-Arm Phase 2 Familial Ad — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:10:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMpipelineREC-488110-K Item 1: 'the first clinical validation of the Recursion OS, with positive Phase 1b/2 results from our REC-4881 MEK1/2 inhibitor program in FAP'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOWChristopher Gibson, Ph.D., Chair of the Board, informed the company on April 28, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election as a Class II Director at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. No successor named; Dr. Gibson will continue as Chair until his term expires.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02MEDIUMCMO transition effective April 6, 2026: Vicki Goodman, M.D. appointed as Chief Medical Officer; David Mauro, M.D., Ph.D. departing. Successor named. Dr. Mauro to continue in advisory capacity until May 29, 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $3.68: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 32%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $3.42. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $6.37 (+73.0% upside). Prior stop was $3.42. Stop-loss: $3.42.
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -62.9%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 3.53% of cap).
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -4.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate RXRX, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $7.
What does Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company with an AI-native drug discovery platform (Recursion OS)...
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage TechBio company with an AI-native drug discovery platform (Recursion OS) and five wholly-owned clinical programs, with no products approved for commercial sale. Revenue derives from collaboration agreements with Roche, Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer, and Merck KGaA, having received over $500 million in partner payments to date against an accumulated deficit of $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2025.