Skip to main content
RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.Sell4.3·$191.06+0.96%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with no approved products and consistently negative earnings surprises across all 4 reported quarters, relying entirely on pipeline progression to justify the current valuation, with strong analyst sentiment of 9.0 out of 10 providing the primary support for the bull thesis.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Analyst And News SentimentStable
  • No Approved Products Pipeline RiskStable
  • Consistent Earnings Miss Burn RateStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality.

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with no approved products and no product revenue as of December 31, 2025. The company's lead asset daraxonrasib is in five Phase 3 registrational trials... Read more

$191.06-0.1% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#211 of 253 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.51%
Stop $176.69Target $189.82(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$197.18+3.2%22 analysts
$189.82our TP
$191.06price
$197.18mean
$151
$263

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Revolution Medicines, Inc.

About Revolution Medicines, Inc.

Revolution Medicines ended 2025 with $2.0 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities but an accumulated deficit of $2.9 billion after net losses of $1.1 billion in 2025, $600.1 million in 2024, and $436.4 million in 2023 — the largest annual loss since the company's October 2014 inception. The company has no approved products and has never generated revenue from product sales. Four compounds are in active clinical development: daraxonrasib (RMC-6236, multi-selective RAS(ON) Inhibitor), zoldonrasib (RMC-9805, G12D-selective), elironrasib (RMC-6291, G12C-selective), and RMC-5127 (G12V-selective).

Revolution Medicines' financial model is research-stage: operations are funded through public equity offerings ($2.1 billion raised in underwritten offerings since inception) and non-product revenue agreements. In June 2025, the company received $250.0 million in gross proceeds from a Royalty Purchase Agreement with Royalty Pharma, which grants Royalty Pharma a security interest in certain daraxonrasib-related assets and imposes diligence covenants tied to specific clinical and regulatory milestones. Five Phase 3 registrational trials are active: RASolute 302 (daraxonrasib vs. chemotherapy in second-line PDAC, readout expected first-half 2026), RASolute 303 (daraxonrasib ± chemotherapy in first-line PDAC), RASolute 304 (daraxonrasib adjuvant in resectable PDAC), RASolute 305 (zoldonrasib plus chemotherapy in first-line PDAC), and RASolve 301 (daraxonrasib vs. docetaxel in RAS mutant NSCLC). All drug substance and drug product manufacturing is outsourced to contract development and manufacturing organizations under cGMP agreements.

Show full overview

The company's principal near-term value inflection is the RASolute 302 readout in second-line PDAC, anticipated in the first half of 2026. In October 2025, the FDA granted daraxonrasib both a non-transferable Commissioner's National Priority Voucher and Orphan Drug Designation for pancreatic cancer; in June 2025, daraxonrasib received Breakthrough Therapy Designation for previously treated metastatic PDAC. If RASolute 302 data do not meet pre-specified endpoints, the company's ability to raise additional capital and sustain five concurrent Phase 3 programs could be materially impaired, given that the Royalty Purchase Agreement's additional funding tranches are conditioned on commercial milestones. Adverse results could also weigh on Term Loan Facility covenants, which restrict the company's ability to incur additional liens or dispose of certain daraxonrasib-related assets.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Revolution Medicines, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Revolution Medicines, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: product candidates (no approved products)
Concentration risk — Supplier: CDMOs
Target reached (-6.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-32.7
Mkt Cap$40.2B
EV/EBITDA-28.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-76.7%
Rev Growth
Beta1.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.83bearish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineproduct candidates (no approved products)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is dependent on the successful development of our current and future product candidates'
  • HIGHSupplierCDMOs
    10-K Item 1: 'We rely on and will continue to rely on contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) for all manufacturing activities. Currently, all of our manufacturing is outsourced'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
6.2
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $141.44Resistance $193.69

Price Targets

$177
$190
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RVMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $191.06: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.83; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $176.69. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RVMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $189.82 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $176.69. Stop-loss: $176.69.

What are the risks of investing in RVMD?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: product candidates (no approved products); Concentration risk — Supplier: CDMOs; Target reached (-6.6% upside).

Is RVMD overvalued or undervalued?

Revolution Medicines, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RVMD?

29 analysts cover RVMD with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $197.

What does Revolution Medicines, Inc. do?Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted...

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with no approved products and no product revenue as of December 31, 2025. The company's lead asset daraxonrasib is in five Phase 3 registrational trials across pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer, funded by $2.0 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at year-end.

Related stocks: INCY (Incyte Corporation) · ARGX (argenx SE) · ONC (BeOne Medicines Ltd.) · ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) · HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.)
Home Stocks RVMD

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga22h agoAnalyst
Benzinga23h ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga5d agoProduct
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga7d agoAnalyst
Benzinga8d agoAnalyst
Benzinga14d agoProduct
Benzinga19d ago
Benzinga27d ago
Benzinga35d ago
Benzinga36d agoAnalyst
Benzinga36d ago
Benzinga36d agoProduct
Benzinga46d ago
Benzinga47d agoProduct
Benzinga49d ago
Benzinga50d agoAnalyst
Benzinga50d ago
Benzinga53d agoProduct
Loading more...