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Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.49: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) inhibitors. Lead asset daraxonrasib is in multiple Phase 3 trials for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC, with a key readout from RASolute 302 expected in H1 2026. The pipeline also includes... Read more

$144.49+15.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#137 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.98%
Stop $134.26Target $166.00(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$184.45+27.7%20 analysts
$166.00our TP
$144.49price
$184.45mean
$263

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.49: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Revolution Medicines, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: daraxonrasib (RASolute 302)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-25.4
Mkt Cap$30.7B
EV/EBITDA-21.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-76.7%
Rev Growth
Beta1.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$30-79.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinedaraxonrasib (RASolute 302)
    10-K Item 1: 'RASolute 302: comparing daraxonrasib against chemotherapy in patients with second line (2L) PDAC; a clinical readout for this study is currently expected in the first half of 2026'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
6.2
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $131.02Resistance $151.43

Price Targets

$134
$166
A.Upside+14.9%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RVMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $144.49: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $134.26. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RVMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $166.00 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $134.26. Stop-loss: $134.26.

What are the risks of investing in RVMD?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: daraxonrasib (RASolute 302); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is RVMD overvalued or undervalued?

Revolution Medicines, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -25.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RVMD?

27 analysts cover RVMD with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $184.

What does Revolution Medicines, Inc. do?Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) inhibitors. Lead asset...

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing RAS(ON) inhibitors. Lead asset daraxonrasib is in multiple Phase 3 trials for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC, with a key readout from RASolute 302 expected in H1 2026. The pipeline also includes zoldonrasib (G12D), elironrasib (G12C), and RMC-5127 (G12V).

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