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Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.59: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with daraxonrasib (multi-selective, FDA Breakthrough Therapy for PDAC), zoldonrasib (G12D-selective, Breakthrough Therapy for NSCLC), and elironrasib... Read more

$141.59+10.6% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#143 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $131.93Target $156.87(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$174.30+23.1%20 analysts
$156.87our TP
$141.59price
$174.30mean
$116
$263

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.59: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: daraxonrasib (RMC-6236)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-26.8
Mkt Cap$29.9B
EV/EBITDA-22.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-58.1%
Rev Growth
Beta1.01
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.02bearish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$50-64.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinedaraxonrasib (RMC-6236)
    10-K Item 1A: 'certain assets related to the RMC-6236 Products'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.9
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.4
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 72)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 6 days
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.00Resistance $155.70

Price Targets

$132
$157
A.Upside+10.8%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RVMD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.59: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $131.93. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RVMD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.87 (+10.6% upside). Prior stop was $131.93. Stop-loss: $131.93.

What are the risks of investing in RVMD?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: daraxonrasib (RMC-6236); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is RVMD overvalued or undervalued?

Revolution Medicines, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -26.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RVMD?

27 analysts cover RVMD with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Revolution Medicines, Inc. do?Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with...

Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage oncology company developing RAS(ON) Inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with daraxonrasib (multi-selective, FDA Breakthrough Therapy for PDAC), zoldonrasib (G12D-selective, Breakthrough Therapy for NSCLC), and elironrasib (G12C-selective, Breakthrough Therapy for NSCLC) all in Phase 3 registrational trials. The company has no revenue from product sales; as of December 31, 2025, cash was $2.0 billion and accumulated deficit was $2.9 billion. In June 2025, Royalty Pharma provided $250M under a Royalty Purchase Agreement linked to daraxonrasib.

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