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Rambus, Inc. (RMBS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. At $115.36, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (66.0%).

Rambus is a fabless semiconductor company providing DDR5/LPDDR5 memory interface chips and silicon IP (HBM, GDDR, PCIe, security) for data center and AI infrastructure. Revenue comes from chip sales to memory module manufacturers and OEMs, plus IP licensing. Top-5 customers... Read more

$115.36+5.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#16 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $106.96Target $121.15(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$139.25+20.7%8 analysts
$121.15our TP
$115.36price
$139.25mean
$100
$172

Sell if holding. At $115.36, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (66.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (66.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)53.7
P/E (Fwd)30.9
Mkt Cap$12.1B
EV/EBITDA37.7
Profit Mgn31.9%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta1.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$83-28.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-5 customers66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top five customers for each reporting period represented approximately 66% of our consolidated revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Victor Peng, age 65, appointed as Class II director effective February 12, 2026; Board expanded to eight members. Appointed to Compensation and Human Resources Committee. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Desmond Lynch, SVP and CFO, resigned effective February 27, 2026 to pursue another opportunity. John Allen, VP/Chief Accounting Officer, appointed as Interim CFO effective upon Lynch's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.08Resistance $161.80

Price Targets

$107
$121
A.Upside+5.0%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RMBS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $115.36, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (66.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $106.96. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RMBS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $121.15 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $106.96. Stop-loss: $106.96.

What are the risks of investing in RMBS?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (66.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.

Is RMBS overvalued or undervalued?

Rambus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 53.7 (forward 30.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RMBS?

17 analysts cover RMBS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $139.

What does Rambus, Inc. do?Rambus is a fabless semiconductor company providing DDR5/LPDDR5 memory interface chips and silicon IP (HBM, GDDR, PCIe,...

Rambus is a fabless semiconductor company providing DDR5/LPDDR5 memory interface chips and silicon IP (HBM, GDDR, PCIe, security) for data center and AI infrastructure. Revenue comes from chip sales to memory module manufacturers and OEMs, plus IP licensing. Top-5 customers represented approximately 66% of 2025 revenues.

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