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RLI Corp. (RLI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Wait for pullback to $50.82. BUY gates pass at $51.90, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and weak overall score: 5.0/10 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $50.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

RLI Corp. is a specialty insurance company underwriting select property (31%), casualty (60%), and surety (9%) products in admitted and excess-and-surplus markets, distributed through brokers and agents nationwide. Net premiums earned were $1.614B in 2025; no foreign operations;... Read more

$51.90+11.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#22 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.68%
IncomeYield1.38%(5y avg 0.85%)Payout14.92%sustainable
Entry $50.82(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $47.84Target $55.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$57.75+11.3%4 analysts
$55.89our TP
$51.90price
$57.75mean
$67

Wait for pullback to $50.82. BUY gates pass at $51.90, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and weak overall score: 5.0/10 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $50.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — RLI Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 5.0/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.2
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn20.8%
ROE23.2%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta0.38
Dividend1.38%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.14bearish
IV135%elevated
Max Pain$58+11.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
3.4
Quality Rank
7.8
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $47.26Resistance $57.03

Price Targets

$48
$51
$56
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RLI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $50.82. BUY gates pass at $51.90, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and weak overall score: 5.0/10 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $50.82 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $55.89 (+7.7%), stop $47.84 (−8.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.89 (+11.0% upside). Target $55.89 (+7.7%), stop $47.84 (−8.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $47.84.

What are the risks of investing in RLI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Weak growth.

Is RLI overvalued or undervalued?

RLI Corp. trades at a P/E of 12.2 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RLI?

13 analysts cover RLI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $58.

What does RLI Corp. do?RLI Corp. is a specialty insurance company underwriting select property (31%), casualty (60%), and surety (9%) products...

RLI Corp. is a specialty insurance company underwriting select property (31%), casualty (60%), and surety (9%) products in admitted and excess-and-surplus markets, distributed through brokers and agents nationwide. Net premiums earned were $1.614B in 2025; no foreign operations; rated A+ by AM Best.

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