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Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.98: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products including the Black Widow/Teal 2 sUAS (selected for U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance Program of Record in Nov 2024), the FANG FPV drone, FlightWave VTOL... Read more

$8.98+116.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#46 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-6.94%
Stop $8.11Target $18.49(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.8:1
Analyst target$21.75+142.2%4 analysts
$18.49our TP
$8.98price
$21.75mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.98: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Federal Government military agencies
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-23.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA-11.8
Profit Mgn-138.4%
ROE-56.4%
Rev Growth849.1%
Beta1.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV103%elevated
Max Pain$1-88.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. Federal Government military agencies
    10-K Item 1: 'Our sales and marketing efforts have been focused on developing relationships with the military agencies of the U.S. Federal Government.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -138.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -163% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 7.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.36Resistance $14.12

Price Targets

$8
$18
A.Upside+105.9%
A.R:R7.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RCAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.98: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10 and A.R:R 7.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $8.11. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RCAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.49 (+116.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.11. Stop-loss: $8.11.

What are the risks of investing in RCAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. Federal Government military agencies; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is RCAT overvalued or undervalued?

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -23.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RCAT?

11 analysts cover RCAT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Red Cat Holdings, Inc. do?Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products...

Red Cat Holdings is a U.S.-based provider of drone and robotic systems for defense and public safety, with products including the Black Widow/Teal 2 sUAS (selected for U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance Program of Record in Nov 2024), the FANG FPV drone, FlightWave VTOL fixed-wing ISR aircraft, and Blue Ops uncrewed surface vessels. Sales are primarily to U.S. military agencies; the company had 244 employees as of December 31, 2025 and an accumulated deficit of $196.8M. Revenue is transactional with no long-term purchase commitments.

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