Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the QFIN stock price target?

Take-profit $20.45 (+57.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.08.

Q: What are the risks of investing in QFIN?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth; Negative momentum; NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING; Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is QFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Qfin Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.0 (forward 2.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about QFIN?

19 analysts cover QFIN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $24.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Credit Services

$12.99+57.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#20 of 28 Credit Services

Stop $12.08Target $20.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.0:1

Analyst target$23.51+81.0%12 analysts

$20.45our TP

$12.99price

$23.51mean

$32

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

High-quality business

Attractive valuation

Positive insider activity

Risks

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Weak growth

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.0

P/E (Fwd)2.5

Mkt Cap$1.5B

EV/EBITDA-0.0

Profit Mgn31.2%

ROE24.7%

Rev Growth-8.7%

Beta0.56

Dividend12.21%

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.21bearish

IV64%elevated

Max Pain$40+207.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.715%1.45

Quality7.215%1.08

Growth0.115%0.01

Momentum3.210%0.32

Sentiment6.610%0.66

Insider Activity7.010%0.70

Peer Rank5.310%0.53

Technical Setup2.85%0.14

Risk Profile7.05%0.35

Catalyst4.95%0.25

Overall (Σ contributions)5.50

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

0.3

Declining revenue: -9%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Support Resistance

3.8

Bollinger

4.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

4.5

Macd

6.4

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -16.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)INSIDER 0.18%=MODERATEA.R:R 7.0 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

52 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.92Resistance $13.64

Price Targets

$12

$20

A.Upside+57.4%

A.R:R7.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-18 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is QFIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.99 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Prior stop was $12.08. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.45 (+57.4% upside). Prior stop was $12.08. Stop-loss: $12.08.

What are the risks of investing in QFIN?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is QFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Qfin Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.0 (forward 2.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QFIN?

19 analysts cover QFIN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Qfin Holdings, Inc. do?Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao...

Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that match borrowers with financial institutions to conduct borrower acquisition, credit assessment, fund matching, and post-facilitation services; and platform services, including loan facilitation and post-facilitation services to financial institution partners under an intelligence credit engine, referral services, and other technology solutions. It serves financial institutions, consumers, and small and micro-enterprises. The company was formerly known as Qifu Technology, Inc. and changed its name to Qfin Holdings, Inc. in July 2025. Qfin Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.