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Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-26). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that match borrowers with financial institutions to conduct borrower... Read more

$12.75+58.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#21 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield31.81%
IncomeYield12.16%Payout23.85%sustainable
Stop $12.15Target $20.16(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.9:1
Analyst target$23.17+81.7%12 analysts
$20.16our TP
$12.75price
$23.17mean
$32

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Qfin Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.0
P/E (Fwd)2.5
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA-0.0
Profit Mgn31.2%
ROE24.7%
Rev Growth-8.7%
Beta0.54
Dividend12.16%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.3
Declining revenue: -9%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -16.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dINSIDER 0.18%=MODERATEA.R:R 7.9 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.53Resistance $14.00

Price Targets

$12
$20
A.Upside+58.1%
A.R:R7.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-26 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QFIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.15. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.16 (+58.1% upside). Prior stop was $12.15. Stop-loss: $12.15.

What are the risks of investing in QFIN?

Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is QFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Qfin Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.0 (forward 2.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QFIN?

19 analysts cover QFIN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Qfin Holdings, Inc. do?Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao...

Qfin Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operate AI- driven credit-tech platform under the Qifu Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that match borrowers with financial institutions to conduct borrower acquisition, credit assessment, fund matching, and post-facilitation services; and platform services, including loan and post-facilitation services to financial institution partners under capital light model, intelligence credit engine, referral services, and other technology solutions. It serves financial institutions, consumers, and small and micro-enterprises. The company was formerly known as Qifu Technology, Inc. and changed its name to Qfin Holdings, Inc. in July 2025. Qfin Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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