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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 4/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $98.67, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: JNJ; Concentration risk — Customer: Takeda.

Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma with no approved products, focused on two partnered programs: Icotyde (licensed to Johnson & Johnson, NDA filed July 2025 for psoriasis) and rusfertide (Takeda collaboration, NDA filed December 2025 for polycythemia vera).... Read more

$98.67+6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#127 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $92.54Target $104.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$113.33+14.9%12 analysts
$104.86our TP
$98.67price
$113.33mean
$125

Sell if holding. At $98.67, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: JNJ; Concentration risk — Customer: Takeda. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: JNJ
Concentration risk — Customer: Takeda
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-226.9
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA-36.5
Profit Mgn-282.8%
ROE-20.2%
Rev Growth-95.6%
Beta2.11
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$55-44.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerJNJ
    10-K Item 1A: 'If JNJ does not elect to continue the development of or successfully commercialize Icotyde ... our business and business prospects would be adversely affected'
  • HIGHCustomerTakeda
    10-K Item 1A: 'if Takeda does not elect to commercialize rusfertide ... our business and business prospects would be adversely affected'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.2
Quality Rank
3.2
Value Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $95.40Resistance $107.00

Price Targets

$93
$105
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTGX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $98.67, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: JNJ; Concentration risk — Customer: Takeda. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $92.54. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the PTGX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.86 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $92.54. Stop-loss: $92.54.

What are the risks of investing in PTGX?

Concentration risk — Customer: JNJ; Concentration risk — Customer: Takeda; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is PTGX overvalued or undervalued?

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -226.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTGX?

19 analysts cover PTGX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. do?Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma with no approved products, focused on two partnered programs:...

Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma with no approved products, focused on two partnered programs: Icotyde (licensed to Johnson & Johnson, NDA filed July 2025 for psoriasis) and rusfertide (Takeda collaboration, NDA filed December 2025 for polycythemia vera). Revenue is derived from collaboration milestones and royalties from JNJ and Takeda.

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