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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage peptide biopharma with two lead programs licensed to major pharma: icotrokinra (Icotyde, IL-23R antagonist for psoriasis) partnered with J&J/Janssen (NDA filed July 2025) and rusfertide (hepcidin mimetic for polycythemia vera)... Read more

$100.74+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#61 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.20%
Stop $94.09Target $102.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$117.33+16.5%12 analysts
$102.08our TP
$100.74price
$117.33mean
$137

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.0Qual3.1Grw10.0Mom4.1Sent7.1Ins3.0Peer4.2Tech6.4Risk3.75.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: Icotyde and rusfertide
Concentration risk — Counterparty: JNJ and Takeda
Target reached (1.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-130.1
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA-42.1
Profit Mgn-154.9%
ROE-17.1%
Rev Growth99.0%
Beta1.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV48%normal
Max Pain$70-30.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineIcotyde and rusfertide
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our future success is substantially dependent on our ability and the ability of our collaborators to timely complete clinical trials and obtain marketing approval for... our clinical-stage product candidates, such as Icotyde and rusfertide.'
  • HIGHcounterpartyJNJ and Takeda
    10-K Item 1A: 'If JNJ does not elect to continue the development of or successfully commercialize Icotyde, or if Takeda does not elect to commercialize rusfertide, our business and business prospects would be adversely affected.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.8
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -105% of revenueRule of 40: -6 (fail)
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $97.00Resistance $107.00

Price Targets

$94
$102
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTGX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $100.74: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $94.09. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTGX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.08 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $94.09. Stop-loss: $94.09.

What are the risks of investing in PTGX?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: Icotyde and rusfertide; Concentration risk — Counterparty: JNJ and Takeda; Target reached (1.3% upside).

Is PTGX overvalued or undervalued?

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -130.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTGX?

19 analysts cover PTGX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $117.

What does Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. do?Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage peptide biopharma with two lead programs licensed to major pharma:...

Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage peptide biopharma with two lead programs licensed to major pharma: icotrokinra (Icotyde, IL-23R antagonist for psoriasis) partnered with J&J/Janssen (NDA filed July 2025) and rusfertide (hepcidin mimetic for polycythemia vera) partnered with Takeda (NDA filed December 2025). The company holds $646M in cash and is eligible for up to $1.6B in combined milestones from both collaborations.

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