Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸Attractively valued
PGR · Why this verdict
Why Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Progressive Corporation combines an exceptional ROE of 38% and strong free cash flow conversion of 134% with attractive valuation, but near-term upside is constrained by a confirmed price downtrend and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Personal lines represent 87% of Progressive's business, creating significant concentration risk where any regulatory, competitive, or catastrophe shock to that segment would materially impact the entire company. Bear case | Commercial lines revenue grows to represent at least 15% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing single-segment dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterMarket leadership in personal auto insurance provides scale advantages and pricing discipline that can sustain profitability even through industry cycles. | ||
Progressive generates a return on equity of 38% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 134% of net income, placing it among the highest-quality insurers in its peer group. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 30% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance ROE is highly sensitive to catastrophe losses; a single bad hurricane or wildfire season could compress ROE dramatically from current levels. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a moving average slope of -2.3% over 30 days, indicating a confirmed downtrend, and has triggered a death cross warning flag. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 7.0 within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at 56, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing rather than deepening — recovery setups can precede strong rebounds. | ||
Progressive has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an upcoming earnings report in 29 days, representing a near-term catalyst where a fourth beat would reinforce the quality narrative. Catalyst breakdown | Progressive beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarters, moving the catalyst score above 6.0. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one quarterly miss was a significant 15.8% shortfall, suggesting earnings can be lumpy and the streak may reflect favorable claims experience rather than structural improvement. | ||
Personal lines represent 87% of Progressive's business, creating significant concentration risk where any regulatory, competitive, or catastrophe shock to that segment would materially impact the entire company.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial lines revenue grows to represent at least 15% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing single-segment dependency.
CounterMarket leadership in personal auto insurance provides scale advantages and pricing discipline that can sustain profitability even through industry cycles.
Progressive generates a return on equity of 38% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 134% of net income, placing it among the highest-quality insurers in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 30% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 4 quarters.
CounterInsurance ROE is highly sensitive to catastrophe losses; a single bad hurricane or wildfire season could compress ROE dramatically from current levels.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a moving average slope of -2.3% over 30 days, indicating a confirmed downtrend, and has triggered a death cross warning flag.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 7.0 within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at 56, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing rather than deepening — recovery setups can precede strong rebounds.
Progressive has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an upcoming earnings report in 29 days, representing a near-term catalyst where a fourth beat would reinforce the quality narrative.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Progressive beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarters, moving the catalyst score above 6.0.
CounterThe one quarterly miss was a significant 15.8% shortfall, suggesting earnings can be lumpy and the streak may reflect favorable claims experience rather than structural improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 85 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,613,638 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 644.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.43
Upside
-6.0%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Growth at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Progressive generates a return on equity of 38% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 134% of net income, placing it among the highest-quality insurers in its peer group.
Trip ifROE falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating profitability compression beyond normal cyclical variation.
- P2The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a moving average slope of -2.3% over 30 days, indicating a confirmed downtrend, and has triggered a death cross warning flag.
Trip ifPrice drops below $190 or the moving average slope declines more than 4% over 30 days, confirming accelerating downtrend.
- P3Personal lines represent 87% of Progressive's business, creating significant concentration risk where any regulatory, competitive, or catastrophe shock to that segment would materially impact the entire company.
Trip ifPersonal lines combined ratio rises above 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating unprofitable underwriting in the dominant segment.
- P4Progressive has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an upcoming earnings report in 29 days, representing a near-term catalyst where a fourth beat would reinforce the quality narrative.
Trip ifProgressive misses earnings estimates by more than 10% in the next quarterly report, breaking the recent beat pattern.