Skip to main content

PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California.

PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states and serving over 31,700 patients daily. It generated $5.3 billion in total revenue in 2025, with Medicare and Medicaid accounting... Read more

$32.89+21.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $30.62Target $39.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$45.83+39.4%6 analysts
$39.87our TP
$32.89price
$45.83mean
$52

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.4
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA23.7
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE23.0%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta0.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$18-46.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMedicaid41%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerMedicare34%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of these leased facilities are in California'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    PACS Group appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc to its Board of Directors effective March 4, 2026, as a Class III director. No arrangement or understanding pursuant to which Dr. Conway was appointed. No family relationships with any director or executive officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.4
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.9
Quality Rank
5.4
Growth Rank
5.8
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.45Resistance $37.50

Price Targets

$31
$40
A.Upside+21.2%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PACS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.62. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the PACS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.87 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.62. Stop-loss: $30.62.

What are the risks of investing in PACS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.

Is PACS overvalued or undervalued?

PACS Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.4 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PACS?

12 analysts cover PACS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $46.

What does PACS Group, Inc. do?PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care...

PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states and serving over 31,700 patients daily. It generated $5.3 billion in total revenue in 2025, with Medicare and Medicaid accounting for 33.7% and 40.5% of routine revenue respectively.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corporation) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation)