PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: California.
PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states serving 31,700+ patients daily. Revenue of $5.3B in 2025 comes primarily from Medicare (33.7%) and Medicaid (40.5%) reimbursements; the... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About PACS Group, Inc.
About PACS Group, Inc.
PACS Group operated 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states at December 31, 2025, generating $5.3 billion in total revenue for the year — a compound annual growth rate of 30.4% over three years. The portfolio served over 31,700 patients daily, with Mature facilities (150 of 321) averaging a 4.4 QM Star rating and 95% occupancy, compared to the 3.5 Star and 79% occupancy industry averages.
PACS Group earns revenue primarily from Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement, which together accounted for 74.2% of routine revenue in 2025 (33.7% Medicare, 40.5% Medicaid). The company acquires underperforming long-term custodial care SNFs and converts them into higher-acuity, short-term transitional care facilities through an up to three-year post-acquisition transition period. In 2025, Mature facilities generated $2.9 billion in skilled nursing services revenue; Ramping and New facilities contributed $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. The portfolio leans heavily on leased properties — 268 of 321 facilities as of December 31, 2025 — with the majority of leased facilities in California; the weighted average annual lease escalator of 2% and average remaining lease term of approximately 13 years provide operational durability. PACS Group competes with other SNF operators for hospital discharge referrals, where its 4.1-Star average portfolio rating versus the 3.5 Star industry average supports admissions mix.
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Medicare and Medicaid are set by CMS rate-setting cycles, not negotiated commercially, making them less predictable than private insurance. PACS Group's 10-K identifies changes in patient acuity mix and payor mix as top risks to revenue and financial condition. Any CMS rate reduction for SNF services, or a policy shift favoring home health over facility-based post-acute care, could weigh on the company's blended reimbursement rate. In April 2026, the company appointed Carey Hendrickson as CFO, bringing new financial leadership as the company navigates payer concentration risk.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From PACS Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — PACS Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PACS : Intends to Release First Quarter 2026 Earnings on Monday, May 11, 2026, and Host a Call to Discuss Financial Resu — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS PACS Group Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Hendrickson - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Is It Too Late To Consider PACS Group (PACS) After Its 266.3% One-Year Surge? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Q1 earnings and revenues surpass estimates - msn.com — msn.com positive
- NEWS PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Q1 earnings and revenues surpass estimates - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-06-17T08:31:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicare34%10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, respectively.'
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicaid41%10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, respectively.'
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1: 'The majority of these leased facilities are in California'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMCarey Hendrickson appointed CFO effective April 27, 2026 (successor named, previously CFO at U.S. Physical Therapy). Mark Hancock ceases as Interim CFO but remains Executive Vice Chairman; plans to retire June 30, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOWPatrick H. Conway, MD, MSc appointed to Board as Class III director effective March 4, 2026. No family relationships or related-party transactions disclosed. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.38. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $42.78 (+19.2% upside). Prior stop was $33.38. Stop-loss: $33.38.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
PACS Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover PACS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $49.
What does PACS Group, Inc. do?PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities...
PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states serving 31,700+ patients daily. Revenue of $5.3B in 2025 comes primarily from Medicare (33.7%) and Medicaid (40.5%) reimbursements; the majority of leased facilities are in California.