PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California.
PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states and serving over 31,700 patients daily. It generated $5.3 billion in total revenue in 2025, with Medicare and Medicaid accounting... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerMedicaid41%10-K Item 1A: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicare34%10-K Item 1A: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'The majority of these leased facilities are in California'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOWPACS Group appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc to its Board of Directors effective March 4, 2026, as a Class III director. No arrangement or understanding pursuant to which Dr. Conway was appointed. No family relationships with any director or executive officer.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $32.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.62. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $39.87 (+21.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.62. Stop-loss: $30.62.
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicaid (40.5%); Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5.
PACS Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.4 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover PACS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $46.
What does PACS Group, Inc. do?PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care...
PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing providers in the U.S. by facility count, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states and serving over 31,700 patients daily. It generated $5.3 billion in total revenue in 2025, with Medicare and Medicaid accounting for 33.7% and 40.5% of routine revenue respectively.