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PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.72: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.04; Below-average business quality.

PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states serving 31,700+ patients daily. Revenue of $5.3B in 2025 comes primarily from Medicare (33.7%) and Medicaid (40.5%) reimbursements; the... Read more

$36.72+16.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#7 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.21%
Stop $34.15Target $42.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$49.17+33.9%6 analysts
$42.78our TP
$36.72price
$49.17mean
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.72: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.04; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — PACS Group, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Carey Hendrickson appointed CFO effective April 27, 2026 (successor named, previously CFO at U.S. Physical Therapy). Mark Hancock ceases as Interim CFO but remains Executive Vice Chairman; plans to retire June 30, 2026.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (55 sells, 0.73% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.7
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA20.5
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE27.1%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta-0.03
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.04bearish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerMedicare34%
    10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerMedicaid41%
    10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicaid, which represent our largest sources of revenue and accounted for 33.7% and 40.5% of our routine revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1: 'The majority of these leased facilities are in California'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Carey Hendrickson appointed CFO effective April 27, 2026 (successor named, previously CFO at U.S. Physical Therapy). Mark Hancock ceases as Interim CFO but remains Executive Vice Chairman; plans to retire June 30, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc appointed to Board as Class III director effective March 4, 2026. No family relationships or related-party transactions disclosed. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Volatile — 6.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Debt Equity
1.6
Implied Vol
2.3
Days To Cover
4.4
Short Interest
4.9
News Risk
6.0
Elevated put/call: 3.04High IV: 66%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.85Resistance $42.53

Price Targets

$34
$43
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (55 sells, 0.73% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PACS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.72: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.04; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $34.15. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PACS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.78 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $34.15. Stop-loss: $34.15.

What are the risks of investing in PACS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): High leverage (D/E 2.2), Material insider selling (55 sells, 0.73% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is PACS overvalued or undervalued?

PACS Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PACS?

13 analysts cover PACS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $49.

What does PACS Group, Inc. do?PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities...

PACS Group is one of the largest skilled nursing facility operators in the US, operating 321 post-acute care facilities across 17 states serving 31,700+ patients daily. Revenue of $5.3B in 2025 comes primarily from Medicare (33.7%) and Medicaid (40.5%) reimbursements; the majority of leased facilities are in California.

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