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Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.65 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Gulf Coast PVC resin producers.

Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with three segments: Electric (utility serving ~134,000 customers in MN, ND, SD), Manufacturing (metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics), and Plastics (PVC pipe for municipal water infrastructure). The Electric segment... Read more

$88.65+2.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#4 of 9 Conglomerates
Stop $84.79Target $90.40(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$86.50-2.4%2 analysts
$90.40our TP
$88.65price
$86.50mean
$83
$90

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.65 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Gulf Coast PVC resin producers. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Gulf Coast PVC resin producers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE15.6%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.49
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$80-9.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Manufacturing segment customers44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'three customers combined to account for 44% of Manufacturing segment operating revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 Plastics segment customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two customers combined to account for 47% of Plastics segment operating revenues'
  • HIGHSupplierGulf Coast PVC resin producers
    10-K Item 1A: 'most U.S. PVC resin production plants are located in the Gulf Coast region, an area prone to seasonal hurricane activity'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Tim Rogelstad elected President of Otter Tail Corporation on April 13, 2026. Charles MacFarlane stepped down as President but continues as CEO. Rogelstad previously served as President of Otter Tail Power Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.9
Revenue Growth
2.9
GatesA.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.33Resistance $92.24

Price Targets

$85
$90
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTTR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.65 — A.R:R is negative (-3.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Gulf Coast PVC resin producers. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $84.79. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.40 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $84.79. Stop-loss: $84.79.

What are the risks of investing in OTTR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Gulf Coast PVC resin producers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away).

Is OTTR overvalued or undervalued?

Otter Tail Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTTR?

10 analysts cover OTTR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $87.

What does Otter Tail Corporation do?Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with three segments: Electric (utility serving ~134,000...

Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with three segments: Electric (utility serving ~134,000 customers in MN, ND, SD), Manufacturing (metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics), and Plastics (PVC pipe for municipal water infrastructure). The Electric segment is its foundational business with a long-term earnings mix target of approximately 70%.

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