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OTTROtter Tail CorporationSell5.2·$89.12+0.41%
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Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Conglomerates

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away).

Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with Electric utility (43% of 2025 revenues, serving ~134,000 customers in MN/ND/SD), Manufacturing (BTD, T.O. Plastics), and Plastics (Northern Pipe, Vinyltech PVC pipe) segments. Revenue from regulated electric rates,... Read more

$89.12+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 9 Conglomerates
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.97%
IncomeYield2.48%(5y avg 2.40%)Payout32.32%sustainable
Stop $85.26Target $89.61(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$90.50+1.5%2 analysts
$89.61our TP
$89.12price
$90.50mean
$86
$95

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Otter Tail Corporation

About Otter Tail Corporation

Otter Tail Corporation's Electric segment contributed 43% of consolidated operating revenues in 2025, serving approximately 134,000 customers across western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota, and northeastern South Dakota through Otter Tail Power Company (OTP). The Manufacturing segment — BTD Manufacturing and T.O. Plastics — and the Plastics segment — Northern Pipe Products and Vinyltech — contributed the remaining revenue. The company employed 2,198 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025, with OTP accounting for 726. The long-term earnings mix target is approximately 70% from Electric and 30% from Manufacturing Platform.

OTP operates as a vertically integrated regulated monopoly, earning retail revenues at rates approved by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, North Dakota Public Service Commission, and South Dakota Public Utilities Commission, plus wholesale electricity and transmission revenues. Two customers combined accounted for 16% of Electric segment revenues in 2025. In the Manufacturing segment, three customers combined accounted for 44% of segment operating revenues, while in the Plastics segment, two customers accounted for 47% of segment operating revenues. PVC resin — the primary material input for the Plastics segment — is sourced predominantly from Gulf Coast region producers, a geography subject to hurricane disruption risk. Coal is the principal fuel for the jointly owned Big Stone Plant and Coyote Station baseload plants; Coyote Station's coal supply is sourced under a requirements contract requiring all coal necessary for plant operation to be purchased from a single counterparty through 2040.

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OTP is subject to regulation by the MPUC, NDPSC, SDPUC, and FERC, with rate recovery not guaranteed. The MPUC's May 2024 Integrated Resource Plan approval directs OTP to cease serving Minnesota customers with capacity or energy from Coyote Station as early as 2029, potentially creating stranded costs. Separately, the NDPSC and North Dakota's federal legislators have opposed cost recovery for MISO Tranche 2.1 transmission projects, putting at risk up to $800 million to $1.0 billion of planned capital investment whose full recovery depends on multi-jurisdictional regulatory alignment.

See also: Industrials · Conglomerates

From Otter Tail Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.4% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.3
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn21.3%
ROE15.5%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.45
Dividend2.48%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$105+17.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop-2 Electric segment customers16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two customers combined to account for 16% of Electric segment revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Manufacturing segment customers44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'three customers combined to account for 44% of Manufacturing segment operating revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 Plastics segment customers47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'two customers combined to account for 47% of Plastics segment operating revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    Tim Rogelstad elected as President of Otter Tail Corporation effective April 13, 2026; Charles MacFarlane stepped down as President but remains CEO. Internal promotion. CFO appointment details in same filing were truncated.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
3.4

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Erm Sentiment
0.0
Analyst Rating
5.0
Price Target
5.2
Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-37.3%)
GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $82.74Resistance $91.44

Price Targets

$85
$90
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTTR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $89.12 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $85.26. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTTR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.61 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $85.26. Stop-loss: $85.26.

What are the risks of investing in OTTR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.4% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OTTR overvalued or undervalued?

Otter Tail Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTTR?

9 analysts cover OTTR with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $91.

What does Otter Tail Corporation do?Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with Electric utility (43% of 2025 revenues, serving ~134,000...

Otter Tail Corporation is a diversified holding company with Electric utility (43% of 2025 revenues, serving ~134,000 customers in MN/ND/SD), Manufacturing (BTD, T.O. Plastics), and Plastics (Northern Pipe, Vinyltech PVC pipe) segments. Revenue from regulated electric rates, metal fabrication, and PVC pipe sales to municipal, commercial, and residential markets.

Related stocks: PAM (Pampa Energia S.A.) · DLX (Deluxe Corporation) · SEB (Seaboard Corporation) · VMI (Valmont Industries, Inc.) · TTI (Tetra Technologies, Inc.)
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