Otter Tail has broken out technically with a golden cross and all moving averages in alignment, but analyst price targets have already been reached, the stock sits 3.8% from its 52-week high, and high short interest of 18% creates a squeeze risk that could accelerate either a sharp move up or a reversal.
Thesis pillars
- Technical Breakout Momentum↓Deteriorating
- High Short Interest Squeeze Risk↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Quality Red Flag↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Conglomerates
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.82 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Coyote Station coal counterparty.
Otter Tail Corporation operates through three segments: Electric (OTP serves approximately 134,000 customers across western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota, and northeastern South Dakota), Manufacturing (metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics), and Plastics (PVC pipe for... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.82 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Coyote Station coal counterparty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Otter Tail Corporation
About Otter Tail Corporation
Otter Tail Corporation's Electric segment contributed 43% of consolidated operating revenues in 2025, serving approximately 134,000 customers across western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota, and northeastern South Dakota through Otter Tail Power Company (OTP). The Manufacturing segment — BTD Manufacturing and T.O. Plastics — and the Plastics segment — Northern Pipe Products and Vinyltech — contributed the remaining revenue. The company employed 2,198 full-time employees as of December 31, 2025, with OTP accounting for 726. The long-term earnings mix target is approximately 70% from Electric and 30% from Manufacturing Platform.
OTP operates as a vertically integrated regulated monopoly, earning retail revenues at rates approved by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, North Dakota Public Service Commission, and South Dakota Public Utilities Commission, plus wholesale electricity and transmission revenues. Two customers combined accounted for 16% of Electric segment revenues in 2025. In the Manufacturing segment, three customers combined accounted for 44% of segment operating revenues, while in the Plastics segment, two customers accounted for 47% of segment operating revenues. PVC resin — the primary material input for the Plastics segment — is sourced predominantly from Gulf Coast region producers, a geography subject to hurricane disruption risk. Coal is the principal fuel for the jointly owned Big Stone Plant and Coyote Station baseload plants; Coyote Station's coal supply is sourced under a requirements contract requiring all coal necessary for plant operation to be purchased from a single counterparty through 2040.
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OTP is subject to regulation by the MPUC, NDPSC, SDPUC, and FERC, with rate recovery not guaranteed. The MPUC's May 2024 Integrated Resource Plan approval directs OTP to cease serving Minnesota customers with capacity or energy from Coyote Station as early as 2029, potentially creating stranded costs. Separately, the NDPSC and North Dakota's federal legislators have opposed cost recovery for MISO Tranche 2.1 transmission projects, putting at risk up to $800 million to $1.0 billion of planned capital investment whose full recovery depends on multi-jurisdictional regulatory alignment.
See also: Industrials · Conglomerates
From Otter Tail Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Otter Tail Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Flash (OTTR) Otter Tail Corporation Reports Q3 Revenue $320.5M, vs. FactSet Est of $327.9M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS Otter Tail Narrows FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance from $3.84-$4.24 to $3.89-$4.19 vs $4.48 Est — benzinga Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) Holds Near $90.35 as Price Slips Marginally - Fundamental Weighted - https://www.siam.in/ — https://www.siam.in/ Oct 31, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Is Otter Tail (OTTR) Fairly Valued As Its September Earnings Approach? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: Otter Tail (OTTR) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 26, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomertop-2 customers Electric segment16%10-K Item 1A: 'two customers combined to account for 16% of Electric segment revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-3 customers Manufacturing segment44%10-K Item 1A: 'three customers combined to account for 44% of Manufacturing segment operating revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-2 customers Plastics segment47%10-K Item 1A: 'two customers combined to account for 47% of Plastics segment operating revenues'
- HIGHSupplierCoyote Station coal counterparty10-K Item 1: 'requirements contracts... do require all coal necessary for the operation of the respective plant to be purchased from the counterparty'
- MEDIUMSupplierPVC resin Gulf Coast suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'severe weather events in the Gulf Coast region of the U.S. have disrupted the supply of PVC resin, the primary material input of our Plastics segment businesses'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOWTim Rogelstad elected President of Otter Tail Corporation effective April 13, 2026 (previously President of OTP since 2014). Charles MacFarlane stepped down as President but continues as CEO. CFO appointment also disclosed; body truncated. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -1.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.82 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Coyote Station coal counterparty. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $79.80. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $76.92 reached (−8.2% from $83.82); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $79.80. Stop-loss: $79.80.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Coyote Station coal counterparty; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Otter Tail Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate OTTR, with a consensus score of 2.5/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $91.
What does Otter Tail Corporation do?Otter Tail Corporation operates through three segments: Electric (OTP serves approximately 134,000 customers across...
Otter Tail Corporation operates through three segments: Electric (OTP serves approximately 134,000 customers across western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota, and northeastern South Dakota), Manufacturing (metal fabrication and thermoformed plastics), and Plastics (PVC pipe for municipal water infrastructure). The Electric segment contributed 43% of operating revenues in 2025, with OTP a vertically integrated regulated utility founded in 1907.