O'Reilly Automotive is a high-quality auto parts retailer with a strong Piotroski score of 8/9 and 22% analyst upside, but a confirmed downtrend, thin 9.9% upside margin, elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.52, and a recent executive departure create a cautious near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Piotroski Quality Moat→Stable
- Analyst Upside 22pct↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Downtrend Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. At $92.34, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
O'Reilly Automotive retails automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, and accessories across North America through 6,447 U.S. stores, 112 in Mexico, and 26 in Canada at December 31, 2025. The dual market strategy serves both do-it-yourself consumers (~50% of 2025 sales) and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $92.34, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS O'Reilly Automotive Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, Shares Rise 5% (ORLY) - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS O'Reilly Automotive Rallies as Investors Position for Q3 Results and Possible Guidance Lift - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS O'Reilly’s (NASDAQ:ORLY) Q3 2026 sales top estimates - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWShareholders re-elected 9 directors at the 2026 Annual Meeting on May 14, 2026. Greg Henslee (Executive Chairman) received a $2,000,000 stock option award vesting 25% per year over 4 years. No officer departures cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $92.34, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $87.76. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $95.82 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $87.76. Stop-loss: $87.76.
Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.3 (forward 25.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
36 analysts rate ORLY, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 26 analysts publish price targets averaging $106.
What does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. do?O'Reilly Automotive retails automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, and accessories across North America through...
O'Reilly Automotive retails automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, and accessories across North America through 6,447 U.S. stores, 112 in Mexico, and 26 in Canada at December 31, 2025. The dual market strategy serves both do-it-yourself consumers (~50% of 2025 sales) and professional service provider customers (~50%), supported by 32 distribution centers offering over 156,000 SKUs with same-day or overnight replenishment.