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NWGNatWest Group plcHold6.3·$17.47
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NatWest Group trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with 37% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a perfect earnings beat streak over the last 4 quarters, but the stock has effectively reached analyst price targets and has falling on-balance volume, suggesting limited near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Low Forward Pe Margin Of Safety→Stable
  • Strong Earnings And Margins↑Improving
  • Obv Distribution Signal↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NatWest Group plc (NWG) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers... Read more

$17.47+6.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#52 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield5.34%(5y avg 4.60%)Payout44.17%sustainable
Stop $16.65Target $18.63(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$21.91+25.4%4 analysts
$18.63our TP
$17.47price
$21.91mean
$24

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16

Recent Developments — NatWest Group plc

Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 202615d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.8
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$69.7B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn37.7%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth14.5%
Beta0.82
Dividend5.34%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.29bearish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$15-14.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 15d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.89Resistance $19.06

Price Targets

$17
$19
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (15d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $18.63 (+6.6%), stop $16.65 (−4.9%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.63 (+6.6% upside). Target $18.63 (+6.6%), stop $16.65 (−4.9%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $16.65.

What are the risks of investing in NWG?

Thin upside margin: 6.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NWG overvalued or undervalued?

NatWest Group plc trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NWG?

28 analysts cover NWG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does NatWest Group plc do?NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United...

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

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