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Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. At $472.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for... Read more

$472.99+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#8 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.79%
Stop $448.89Target $519.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$597.63+26.4%8 analysts
$519.93our TP
$472.99price
$597.63mean
$640

Sell if holding. At $472.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Nova Ltd.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)61.0
P/E (Fwd)37.6
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA53.5
Profit Mgn29.2%
ROE22.3%
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta1.78
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.8
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
7.8
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $462.77Resistance $565.00

Price Targets

$449
$520
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $472.99, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $448.89. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $519.93 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $448.89. Stop-loss: $448.89.

What are the risks of investing in NVMI?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.

Is NVMI overvalued or undervalued?

Nova Ltd. trades at a P/E of 61.0 (forward 37.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVMI?

15 analysts cover NVMI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $598.

What does Nova Ltd. do?Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture...

Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, such as lithography, Etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. It serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundry, memory, and packaging sectors, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. Nova Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

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