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MSBIMidland States Bancorp, Inc.Sell5.6·$30.35-3.25%
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Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company... Read more

$30.35+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#155 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.22%(5y avg 5.33%)Payout105.83%at-risk
Stop $28.55Target $31.05(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$28.25-6.9%4 analysts
$31.05our TP
$30.35price
$28.25mean
$25
$32

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$629M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE6.2%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.64
Dividend4.22%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
4.7
Growth Rank
5.2
GatesA.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $27.68Resistance $31.68

Price Targets

$29
$31
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSBI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.35 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $28.55. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.05 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $28.55. Stop-loss: $28.55.

What are the risks of investing in MSBI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is MSBI overvalued or undervalued?

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSBI?

10 analysts cover MSBI with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. do?Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various...

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildings, hotels, mixed-use residential and commercial facilities, retail centers, multifamily properties, assisted living facilities, and farmland; construction and land development loans, including loans to small and midsized businesses to construct owner-user properties, loans to developers of commercial real estate investment properties and residential developments, and loans to individual clients for construction of single family homes; and residential real estate loans comprising first and second mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit. It also provides commercial equipment leasing; depository products consisting of checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposits, and sweep accounts; and trust and wealth management products and services, such as financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage services. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Effingham, Illinois.

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