Midland States Bancorp screens cheap with modest insider buying support, but a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and elevated options hedging temper the value case.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Forward Valuation→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Modest Insider Buying→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.16 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51 billion in total assets operating 53 branches across Illinois and the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The company earns revenue through commercial and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.16 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-14Recent Developments — Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp Inc expected to post earnings of 78 cents a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp (NASDAQ:MSBI) Reaches New 52-Week High - Should You Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp (NASDAQ:MSBI) Shows Steady Improvement with Q2 Earnings Beat, Qualifying as a Quality Regional Ba — ChartMill positive
- NEWS Compared to Estimates, Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-14T11:42:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-11Item 5.02LOWOn May 11, 2026 Midland States Bancorp announced Claire A. Stack was appointed EVP and CFO of the company and Midland States Bank effective May 8, 2026, after serving as interim CFO since March 2026. Formalization of an existing interim role; no departure or dispute cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.16 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $30.66. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $33.22 (-12.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.66. Stop-loss: $30.66.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover MSBI with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $33.
What does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. do?Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51...
Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51 billion in total assets operating 53 branches across Illinois and the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The company earns revenue through commercial and retail lending, deposit-taking, and wealth management services, with its wealth management group overseeing approximately $4.48 billion in assets under administration as of December 31, 2025. Midland's lending strategy targets middle-market businesses and diversified commercial real estate, consumer, and agricultural loan