Midland States Bancorp screens cheap with modest insider buying support, but a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and elevated options hedging temper the value case.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Forward Valuation→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Modest Insider Buying↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026· older than 90 days
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51 billion in total assets operating 53 branches across Illinois and the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The company earns revenue through commercial and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 22, 2026Recent Developments — Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp (NASDAQ:MSBI) Releases Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.06 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp Q3 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Midland States Bancorp: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Beloit Daily News — Beloit Daily News Oct 22, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 22, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-03T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-11Item 5.02LOWOn May 11, 2026 Midland States Bancorp announced Claire A. Stack was appointed EVP and CFO of the company and Midland States Bank effective May 8, 2026, after serving as interim CFO since March 2026. Formalization of an existing interim role; no departure or dispute cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $29.54 reached (−11.4%), stop $31.50 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $29.54 reached (−11.4% from $33.34); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $29.54 reached (−11.4%), stop $31.50 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $31.50.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.7 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts rate MSBI, with a consensus score of 2.5/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $35.
What does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. do?Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51...
Midland States Bancorp is the holding company for Midland States Bank, an Illinois-chartered community bank with $6.51 billion in total assets operating 53 branches across Illinois and the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The company earns revenue through commercial and retail lending, deposit-taking, and wealth management services, with its wealth management group overseeing approximately $4.48 billion in assets under administration as of December 31, 2025. Midland's lending strategy targets middle-market businesses and diversified commercial real estate, consumer, and agricultural loan