Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
MSBI · Why this verdict
Why Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 4.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $248,988 (0.040% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 74%
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.37
Upside
-20.9%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Value at 7.2, and Insider at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.9, and Sentiment at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.