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MPBMid Penn BancorpHold6.7·$37.17+1.95%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mid Penn Bancorp is growing revenue at 33% YoY and in a technical breakout, but the stock has already hit its prior price target and shows a recent earnings-miss pattern.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • Technical Breakout MomentumStable
  • Analyst Target ReachedDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.0% away).

Mid Penn Bancorp is the financial holding company for Mid Penn Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered community bank operating 59 retail branches across nineteen Pennsylvania counties and five New Jersey counties, following its 2025 acquisition of William Penn Bancorporation. The bank... Read more

$37.17-15.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#21 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.46%(5y avg 2.99%)Payout38.18%sustainable
Stop $35.33Target $36.77(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$37.17-0.0%3 analysts
$36.77our TP
$37.17price
$37.17mean
$37
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Mid Penn Bancorp

About Mid Penn Bancorp

Mid Penn Bancorp held $6.1 billion in total consolidated assets, $5.2 billion in deposits and $814.1 million in shareholders' equity as of December 31, 2025, following an all-stock acquisition of William Penn Bancorporation that added 12 branches in the Philadelphia region. The bank operates 59 full-service retail banking offices across nineteen Pennsylvania counties and five New Jersey counties, supervised by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking and Securities and the FDIC. A pending cash-and-stock acquisition of 1st Colonial, announced in September 2025, would extend Mid Penn's footprint further into southern New Jersey.

Mid Penn's business consists almost entirely of Mid Penn Bank, managed as a single reportable segment, which attracts deposits and funds commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, residential mortgage, construction and consumer loans through its branch network. The bank has grown substantially through acquisitions, including Riverview Financial (2021), Brunswick (2023) and William Penn (2025), each adding branches and deposits across Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Beyond banking, Mid Penn has built an insurance and wealth-management business through acquisitions of Commonwealth Benefits Group and Charis Insurance Group, plus a pending purchase of Cumberland Advisors, a registered investment adviser expected to bring approximately $3.2 billion in assets under management. Credit risk is managed through underwriting policies, loan monitoring and portfolio diversification, with collateral generally secured by real estate whose value depends on local market conditions across its footprint.

Show full overview

Mid Penn's 10-K discloses that, as of December 31, 2025, the bank's highest concentration of credit is in commercial real estate, a category sensitive to regional office and retail vacancy trends and to the pace of interest-rate normalization following its multi-year acquisition spree. The bank's rapid inorganic growth, four bank acquisitions since 2021 plus two pending transactions signed in September 2025, also concentrates near-term integration risk, since credit-quality assumptions and systems conversions from William Penn, 1st Colonial and Cumberland Advisors must all be absorbed within a compressed timeframe.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Mid Penn Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.0% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.9
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$924M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth44.7%
Beta
Dividend2.46%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate
    10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, the Bank's highest concentration of credit is in commercial real estate.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.10Resistance $37.52

Price Targets

$35
$37
A.Upside-15.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $36.77 (-1.1%), stop $35.33 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.77 (-15.0% upside). Target $36.77 (-1.1%), stop $35.33 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $35.33.

What are the risks of investing in MPB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.0% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MPB overvalued or undervalued?

Mid Penn Bancorp trades at a P/E of 15.9 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MPB?

7 analysts cover MPB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Mid Penn Bancorp do?Mid Penn Bancorp is the financial holding company for Mid Penn Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered community bank operating...

Mid Penn Bancorp is the financial holding company for Mid Penn Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered community bank operating 59 retail branches across nineteen Pennsylvania counties and five New Jersey counties, following its 2025 acquisition of William Penn Bancorporation. The bank generates revenue primarily through commercial and consumer lending, deposit-taking, and trust and wealth management services, including a newly acquired registered investment adviser, Cumberland Advisors. As of December 31, 2025, Mid Penn held $6.1 billion in total assets and $5.2 billion in deposits, with commercial re

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