Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
MPB · Why this verdict
Why Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mid Penn Bancorp is growing revenue at 33% YoY and in a technical breakout, but the stock has already hit its prior price target and shows a recent earnings-miss pattern.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing strongly at 33% year over year, well above typical regional bank growth rates. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting this growth may already be priced in. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout, with a golden cross and price above all key moving averages. Engine gate (failed) | The momentum score should stay above 5.5 as the breakout continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning downside risk now exceeds upside potential despite the technical breakout. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst-based price target, leaving limited further upside from current levels. Warnings | Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive upside, if the growth trend continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA strong 33% YoY revenue growth profile could justify target increases rather than a pullback. | ||
The company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, raising questions about estimate reliability. Earnings | The company should return to a beat or inline pattern over its next 2 reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRecent insider buying activity suggests management confidence despite the recent miss pattern. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly at 33% year over year, well above typical regional bank growth rates.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting this growth may already be priced in.
The stock is in a technical breakout, with a golden cross and price above all key moving averages.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The momentum score should stay above 5.5 as the breakout continues.
CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning downside risk now exceeds upside potential despite the technical breakout.
The stock has already reached its analyst-based price target, leaving limited further upside from current levels.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive upside, if the growth trend continues.
CounterA strong 33% YoY revenue growth profile could justify target increases rather than a pullback.
The company has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, raising questions about estimate reliability.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to a beat or inline pattern over its next 2 reports.
CounterRecent insider buying activity suggests management confidence despite the recent miss pattern.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 33% YoY
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $77,506 (0.009% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.87
Upside
-9.5%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Catalyst at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, down from the current 33% YoY pace.
- P2Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the breakout.
- P3Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst price target rises more than 10% above the current $35.26 resistance-based target.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates for at least 2 additional consecutive quarters.