Maximus screens as attractively valued at a forward P/E of 6.7 times with analyst consensus implying 72% upside and a beat track record across 3 of the last 4 quarters, but more than half of revenue is concentrated in U.S. federal government contracts, revenue has declined roughly 4% year-over-year, and a confirmed 200-day moving average downtrend creates a setup that is compelling on valuation yet constrained by structural risks.
Thesis pillars
- Compelling Valuation With Wide Upside→Stable
- Federal Contract Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Contraction Undermines Growth Thesis→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 20, 2025· older than 90 days
Maximus, Inc. (MMS) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. At $68.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%).
Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal Services (56% of FY2025 revenue), U.S. Services (32%), and Outside the U.S. (11%). In FY2025, 55% of total revenue came from the U.S. federal government and 60% from... Read more
Sell if holding. At $68.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 19, 2026
Recent Developments — Maximus, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Maximus to Acquire Agile Defense for $660 Million — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Maximus Earnings: What To Look For From MMS - TradingView — TradingView Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Maximus Earnings: What To Look For From MMS - The Chronicle-Journal — The Chronicle-Journal Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Maximus Earnings: What To Look For From MMS - FinancialContent — FinancialContent Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MMS Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 4.3% as Shares Slip - EPS Surprise History - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et Aug 2, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 19, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government55%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our total revenue was derived from the U.S. federal government'
- HIGHCustomerten largest contracts60%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 60% of our revenue came from our ten largest contracts'
- MEDIUMCustomerstate and local government agencies33%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 33% of our total revenue was derived from contracts with state and local government agencies'
- LOWCustomersingle federal agency10-K Item 1A: 'approximately one-fifth of our revenue came from contracts with a single federal agency'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $68.51, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $64.43. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $78.63 (+14.8% upside). Prior stop was $64.43. Stop-loss: $64.43.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest contracts (60.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Maximus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts rate MMS, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $93.
What does Maximus, Inc. do?Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal...
Maximus provides tech-enabled program administration to government agencies through three segments: U.S. Federal Services (56% of FY2025 revenue), U.S. Services (32%), and Outside the U.S. (11%). In FY2025, 55% of total revenue came from the U.S. federal government and 60% from its ten largest contracts, across a workforce of approximately 37,200 employees.