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Maximus, Inc. (MMS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health insurance eligibility, clinical services, and IT modernization across three segments (U.S. Federal Services 56% of FY2025 revenue, U.S. Services, and Outside the... Read more

$65.27+43.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 21 Specialty Business Services
Stop $61.28Target $93.50(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 6.5:1
Analyst target$110.00+68.5%2 analysts
$93.50our TP
$65.27price
$110.00mean
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE22.1%
Rev Growth-4.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$55-15.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our total revenue was derived from the U.S. federal government'
  • MEDIUMCustomersingle federal agency
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately one-fifth of our revenue came from contracts with a single federal agency'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
6.4
Value Rank
8.1
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 6.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $60.75Resistance $70.81

Price Targets

$61
$94
A.Upside+43.3%
A.R:R6.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MMS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.27, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $93.50 (+43.3%), stop $61.28 (−6.5%), A.R:R 6.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.50 (+43.6% upside). Target $93.50 (+43.3%), stop $61.28 (−6.5%), A.R:R 6.5:1. Stop-loss: $61.28.

What are the risks of investing in MMS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is MMS overvalued or undervalued?

Maximus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MMS?

6 analysts cover MMS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Maximus, Inc. do?Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health...

Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health insurance eligibility, clinical services, and IT modernization across three segments (U.S. Federal Services 56% of FY2025 revenue, U.S. Services, and Outside the U.S.). Revenue is almost entirely government-sourced; ~55% federal, ~33% state/local in FY2025.

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