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Maximus, Inc. (MMS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $59.17 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: single federal agency.

Maximus provides tech-enabled services to government agencies through US Federal (56% of FY2025 revenue), US Services (32%), and Outside the US (11%) segments, administering Medicaid, Medicare, VA disability exams, student loan servicing, and tech modernization contracts.... Read more

$59.17+50.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#15 of 21 Specialty Business Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.34%
IncomeYield2.20%(5y avg 1.49%)Payout18.47%sustainable
Stop $55.29Target $89.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst target$105.00+77.5%2 analysts
$89.25our TP
$59.17price
$105.00mean
$125

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $59.17 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: single federal agency. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Maximus, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 40%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: single federal agency
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.0
P/E (Fwd)6.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn7.0%
ROE22.2%
Rev Growth-4.1%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.20%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.80bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal year 2025, approximately 55% of our total revenue was derived from the U.S. federal government'
  • HIGHCustomersingle federal agency
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately one-fifth of our revenue came from contracts with a single federal agency'
  • HIGHCustomertop ten largest contracts60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 60% of our revenue came from our ten largest contracts'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -4.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Earnings Growth
3.3
Declining revenue: -4%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
6.6
Value Rank
8.8
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $56.92Resistance $69.78

Price Targets

$55
$89
A.Upside+50.8%
A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $59.17 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: single federal agency. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $55.29. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.25 (+50.1% upside). Prior stop was $55.29. Stop-loss: $55.29.

What are the risks of investing in MMS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: single federal agency; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is MMS overvalued or undervalued?

Maximus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MMS?

6 analysts cover MMS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Maximus, Inc. do?Maximus provides tech-enabled services to government agencies through US Federal (56% of FY2025 revenue), US Services...

Maximus provides tech-enabled services to government agencies through US Federal (56% of FY2025 revenue), US Services (32%), and Outside the US (11%) segments, administering Medicaid, Medicare, VA disability exams, student loan servicing, and tech modernization contracts. Approximately 55% of revenue is from the US federal government and 33% from state and local agencies.

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