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Aramark (ARMK) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services across education, healthcare, business & industry, and sports/leisure sectors in 16 countries with ~278,390 employees. In fiscal 2025 it generated $18.5 billion in revenue; 71% from the FSS United States segment and... Read more

$51.54+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 21 Specialty Business Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.35%
IncomeYield0.91%(5y avg 1.18%)Payout33.58%sustainable
Stop $48.14Target $52.37(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$53.69+4.2%16 analysts
$52.37our TP
$51.54price
$53.69mean
$40
$63

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Aramark

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (71.0%)
Target reached (-6.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.5
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$13.9B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth14.7%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierSysco43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sysco, which distributed approximately 43% of our food and non-food products in the United States and Canada in fiscal 2025 based on purchase dollars'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States71%
    10-K Item 1: 'our FSS United States segment generated $13,211.9 million in revenue, or 71% of our total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved special RSU grant ($3M grant date fair value) to COO Marc Bruno on Feb 17, 2026, vesting tied in part to permanent CEO succession date. Routine retention grant during CEO search; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.9
Operating Margin
1.8
Roa
2.7
Roe
3.7
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
4.9
Fcf Quality
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 91.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.04Resistance $53.44

Price Targets

$48
$52
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARMK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $51.54: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $48.14. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARMK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.37 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $48.14. Stop-loss: $48.14.

What are the risks of investing in ARMK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (71.0%); Target reached (-6.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is ARMK overvalued or undervalued?

Aramark trades at a P/E of 39.5 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARMK?

22 analysts cover ARMK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Aramark do?Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services across education, healthcare, business & industry, and...

Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services across education, healthcare, business & industry, and sports/leisure sectors in 16 countries with ~278,390 employees. In fiscal 2025 it generated $18.5 billion in revenue; 71% from the FSS United States segment and 29% from FSS International. No individual client exceeds 2% of total revenue.

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