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Aramark (ARMK) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, and sports/leisure/corrections clients, generating $18.5B revenue in FY2025 across 16 countries with ~278,390 employees. FSS United States ($13.2B, 71%) and FSS... Read more

$45.34+1.2% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#20 of 21 Specialty Business Services
Stop $43.37Target $45.94(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$47.63+5.0%16 analysts
$45.94our TP
$45.34price
$47.63mean
$35
$52

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Sysco (43.0%)
Target reached (-5.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.8
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$11.8B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta1.14
Dividend1.07%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierSysco43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sysco, which distributed approximately 43% of our food and non-food products in the United States and Canada in fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved special RSU grant worth $3M to COO Marc Bruno, vesting on third anniversary or six months after permanent CEO appointment, whichever is earlier. Routine compensatory arrangement related to CEO succession planning.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.5
Revenue Growth
4.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.8
Operating Margin
1.8
Roa
2.7
Roe
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Fcf Quality
4.7
Current Ratio
4.8
Moat
5.0
Earnings quality warning: 60% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
5.0
Value Rank
5.7
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.39Resistance $46.88

Price Targets

$43
$46
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARMK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $45.34: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $43.37. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARMK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.94 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $43.37. Stop-loss: $43.37.

What are the risks of investing in ARMK?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Sysco (43.0%); Target reached (-5.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is ARMK overvalued or undervalued?

Aramark trades at a P/E of 37.8 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARMK?

22 analysts cover ARMK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Aramark do?Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, and...

Aramark is a global provider of food and facilities services to education, healthcare, business and industry, and sports/leisure/corrections clients, generating $18.5B revenue in FY2025 across 16 countries with ~278,390 employees. FSS United States ($13.2B, 71%) and FSS International ($5.3B, 29%) are its two segments. No individual client exceeds 2% of revenue except collectively U.S. government agencies.

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