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Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend.

Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland. The company's proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as... Read more

$15.56+91.2% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#139 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $14.52Target $29.75(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 6.3:1
Analyst target$35.00+124.9%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity 119d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.1%), Material insider selling (11 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-222.1
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA-311.5
Profit Mgn-144.3%
ROE-18.2%
Rev Growth1526.8%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$9-42.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (20%).

Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.7
Cash-burning: FCF -106% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
10.0
Industry growth leader
GatesINSIDER 1.87%=EXTREMEMomentum 5.5>=5.5A.R:R 6.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 119d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.30Resistance $16.89

Price Targets

$15
$30
A.Upside+91.2%
A.R:R6.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.1%), Material insider selling (11 sells, 0.16% of cap)
! Insider activity: 1.87%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (119d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MESO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.56: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $14.52. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MESO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.75 (+91.2% upside). Prior stop was $14.52. Stop-loss: $14.52.

What are the risks of investing in MESO?

Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -3.1%), Material insider selling (11 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is MESO overvalued or undervalued?

Mesoblast Limited trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -222.1). TrendMatrix value score: 0.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MESO?

10 analysts cover MESO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Mesoblast Limited do?Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in...

Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland. The company's proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as mesenchymal lineage cells. It offers Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of systemic inflammatory diseases, including steroid refractory acute graft versus host disease and biologic refractory inflammatory bowel disease, as well as ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; and Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials to treat chronic heart failure and chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease. The company is also developing MPC-300-IV to treat biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis diabetic nephropathy. It has strategic partnerships with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group to offer MPC-150-IM for the treatment or prevention of chronic heart failure; MPC-25-IC for the treatment or prevention of acute myocardial infarction; and Ryoncil for the treatment of pediatric SR-aGVHD; JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. to treat wound healing in patients with epidermolysis bullosa and for the treatment of neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; and Grünenthal to develops and commercializes cell therapy for the treatment of chronic low back pain. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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