MongoDB sustains 25% revenue growth and generates a 20% free-cash-flow margin despite reporting GAAP losses — a combination that clears the rule-of-40 benchmark at 45 with four consecutive earnings beats — but a forward multiple of 48.3x and only 2.5% upside to the analyst price target leave no margin for error at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Durable Double Digit Revenue Growth→Stable
- Fcf Profitability Despite Gaap Losses→Stable
- Single Product Cloud Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $353.67 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%).
MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed multi-cloud DBaaS) and MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed) to enterprise customers globally. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue for the fiscal year ended... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $353.67 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — MongoDB, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MongoDB Stock Darts Higher After The Bell: Here's Why - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS What Triggered MongoDB's Sharp Sell-Off and Baird's Downgrade - Kavout — Kavout negative
- NEWS MongoDB Earnings: What To Look For From MDB - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS MongoDB Earnings: What To Look For From MDB - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS MongoDB Earnings: What To Look For From MDB - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAtlas (cloud DBaaS)73%10-K Item 1: 'Atlas represented 73%, 70% and 66% of our total revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $353.67 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $332.86. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $363.11 (+1.5% upside). Prior stop was $332.86. Stop-loss: $332.86.
Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0.
MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 48.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
45 analysts cover MDB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $395.
What does MongoDB, Inc. do?MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed...
MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed multi-cloud DBaaS) and MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed) to enterprise customers globally. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, up from 70% in FY2025; international revenue was 46% of total revenue each of the past three fiscal years.