MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MDB stock price target?

Take-profit $323.01 (+28.3% upside). Prior stop was $234.09.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MDB?

Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.0%), High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap); Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is MDB overvalued or undervalued?

MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MDB?

46 analysts cover MDB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $351.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $251.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%).

MongoDB provides a developer data platform anchored by its document-based database, offered as Atlas cloud DBaaS (73% of fiscal 2026 revenue) or MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (20%). Revenue is primarily usage/subscription-based, serving 10,682+ base customers (>$5K ARR) as of... Read more

$251.11+28.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#65 of 80 Software - Infrastructure

Stop $234.09Target $323.01(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.0:1

Analyst target$351.10+39.8%36 analysts

$323.01our TP

$251.11price

$351.10mean

$495

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Analyst upside: 28%

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.0%), High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)36.6

Mkt Cap$20.8B

EV/EBITDA-169.0

Profit Mgn-2.9%

ROE-2.5%

Rev Growth26.7%

Beta1.60

DividendNone

Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish

IV77%elevated

Max Pain$135-46.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductAtlas73%
10-K Item 1: 'Atlas represented 73%, 70% and 66% of our total revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
Cedric Pech, President Field Operations, notified Company of intent to resign effective April 15, 2026. Separation Agreement entered; Pech to remain employee through April 15. No successor named.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.415%0.81

Quality4.515%0.67

Growth5.815%0.87

Momentum4.410%0.44

Sentiment7.310%0.73

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank4.410%0.44

Technical Setup3.35%0.17

Risk Profile4.65%0.23

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.12

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

1.3

Support Resistance

3.7

Bollinger

5.0

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

64 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $215.68Resistance $272.76

Price Targets

$234

$323

A.Upside+28.6%

A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-04 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MDB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $251.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Prior stop was $234.09. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MDB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $323.01 (+28.3% upside). Prior stop was $234.09. Stop-loss: $234.09.

What are the risks of investing in MDB?

Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.0%), High leverage (D/E 2.1), Material insider selling (24 sells, 0.06% of cap).

Is MDB overvalued or undervalued?

MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDB?

46 analysts cover MDB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $351.

What does MongoDB, Inc. do?MongoDB provides a developer data platform anchored by its document-based database, offered as Atlas cloud DBaaS (73%...