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MDBMongoDB, Inc.Sell5.6·$349.95-1.19%
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MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $349.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%).

MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced) used by developers globally across all major cloud providers. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue in fiscal year ended January 31, 2026; the... Read more

$349.95+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#41 of 77 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.82%
Stop $324.39Target $363.11(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$394.68+12.8%36 analysts
$363.11our TP
$349.95price
$394.68mean
$273
$545

Sell if holding. At $349.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — MongoDB, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T08:56:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202671d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)48.3
Mkt Cap$28.5B
EV/EBITDA-326.1
Profit Mgn-1.1%
ROE-1.0%
Rev Growth25.2%
Beta1.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$640+82.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAtlas73%
    10-K Item 1: 'Atlas represented 73%, 70% and 66% of our total revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Cedric Pech, President Field Operations, notified MongoDB of intent to resign effective April 15, 2026. Separation agreement entered. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $292.72Resistance $412.00

Price Targets

$324
$363
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $349.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $324.39. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $363.11 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $324.39. Stop-loss: $324.39.

What are the risks of investing in MDB?

Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (73.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0.

Is MDB overvalued or undervalued?

MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 48.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDB?

45 analysts cover MDB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $395.

What does MongoDB, Inc. do?MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB...

MongoDB offers a cloud-hosted database-as-a-service platform (Atlas) and enterprise self-managed database (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced) used by developers globally across all major cloud providers. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue in fiscal year ended January 31, 2026; the company reported net losses of $71.2 million in fiscal 2026 and had an accumulated deficit of $1.9 billion.

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