MongoDB sustains 25% revenue growth and generates a 20% free-cash-flow margin despite reporting GAAP losses — a combination that clears the rule-of-40 benchmark at 45 with four consecutive earnings beats — but a forward multiple of 48.3x and only 2.5% upside to the analyst price target leave no margin for error at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Durable Double Digit Revenue Growth→Stable
- Fcf Profitability Despite Gaap Losses→Stable
- Single Product Cloud Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 11, 2026· older than 90 days
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $335.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed multi-cloud DBaaS) and MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed) to enterprise customers globally. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue for the fiscal year ended... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $335.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 11, 2026
Recent Developments — MongoDB, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MDB Stock Dives After-Hours Despite Raised Full-Year Forecast — What’s Driving The Selloff? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Oct 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why Is MongoDB (MDB) Stock Rocketing Higher Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS MongoDB Stock Pops After $1 Billion Buyback Announcement - MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) - benzinga.com — benzinga.com Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS MongoDB Stock Pops After $1 Billion Buyback Announcement - MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) - Benzinga — Benzinga Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS MongoDB Stock Whipsaws As AI Bets Collide With CEO Exit - stockstotrade.com — stockstotrade.com Sep 30, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 11, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAtlas (cloud DBaaS)73%10-K Item 1: 'Atlas represented 73%, 70% and 66% of our total revenue for the fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $335.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $317.06. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $416.30 (+24.1% upside). Prior stop was $317.06. Stop-loss: $317.06.
Concentration risk — Product: Atlas (cloud DBaaS) (73.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
MongoDB, Inc. trades at a P/E of 465.8 (forward 42.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
47 analysts rate MDB, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 36 analysts publish price targets averaging $453.
What does MongoDB, Inc. do?MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed...
MongoDB provides a developer data platform built around its document-based NoSQL database, offering Atlas (managed multi-cloud DBaaS) and MongoDB Enterprise Advanced (self-managed) to enterprise customers globally. Atlas represented 73% of total revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, up from 70% in FY2025; international revenue was 46% of total revenue each of the past three fiscal years.