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MCHBMechanics BancorpSell6.3·$14.96-0.60%
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Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Mechanics Bank operates 166 full-service branches throughout California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii following its September 2025 merger with HomeStreet Bank. The community bank provides commercial lending, mortgage, private banking, and wealth management services to... Read more

$14.96+1.9% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#36 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield8.70%(5y avg 2.43%)Payout327.59%at-risk
Stop $14.20Target $15.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$16.50+10.3%3 analysts
$15.24our TP
$14.96price
$16.50mean
$17

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth30.7%
Beta0.16
Dividend8.70%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.09bearish
IV108%elevated
Max Pain$15+0.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii
    10-K Item 1: '166 full service branch locations throughout California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 870.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.75Resistance $15.55

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCHB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.96 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.20. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCHB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.24 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $14.20. Stop-loss: $14.20.

What are the risks of investing in MCHB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors.

Is MCHB overvalued or undervalued?

Mechanics Bancorp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCHB?

9 analysts cover MCHB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Mechanics Bancorp do?Mechanics Bank operates 166 full-service branches throughout California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii following its...

Mechanics Bank operates 166 full-service branches throughout California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii following its September 2025 merger with HomeStreet Bank. The community bank provides commercial lending, mortgage, private banking, and wealth management services to consumers and businesses across the Pacific states.

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