Macerich trades well above its analyst price target with quality below the minimum acceptable threshold, revenue in decline, and three earnings misses in four quarters — the current price is pricing in a recovery that the fundamentals have not yet delivered.
Thesis pillars
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Misses→Stable
- Price Above Target Rich Valuation→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Macerich Company (The) (MAC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.72: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
Macerich owns and manages 38 shopping centers across the U.S. — 37 regional retail malls and one community/power center — totaling approximately 39 million square feet of GLA. Revenue comes from base and percentage rents, with 73% from Mall Stores and Freestanding Stores under... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.72: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(7), earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Macerich Company (The)
About Macerich Company (The)
Macerich's 38 Centers total approximately 39 million square feet of GLA — averaging roughly 1,000,000 square feet each — and include 127 Anchors and approximately 4,600 Mall Stores and Freestanding Stores. The largest tenant, Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (including subsidiaries), accounted for 4.0% of total rents as of December 31, 2025, and no other top-10 tenant exceeded 2.2%. A significant percentage of Centers are concentrated in California, New York, and Arizona, where regional economic weakness could weigh more heavily on portfolio performance than in other geographies.
Macerich earns revenue through minimum rents and percentage rents tied to tenant sales, with Mall Stores and Freestanding Stores under 10,000 square feet contributing 73% of total rents and Big Box and Anchor tenants contributing the remaining 27%. The company carries floating-rate debt on Crabtree Mall (SOFR plus 2.50% on a $159.1 million term loan closed in August 2025) and a 10-year fixed-rate loan on Washington Square (5.58%, $340.0 million, maturing April 2035). The Path Forward Plan, unveiled in Q2 2024, targets deleveraging the Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio over two to three years through asset dispositions — including 11 discrete sale transactions completed in 2025 — and organic EBITDA growth from tenants in the leasing pipeline opening for business.
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Debt stress is evident at two properties: the $200.0 million South Plains Mall loan, previously in default as of November 2025, was extended to November 2029 at the existing 4.22% rate as of February 2026; the $76.5 million Twenty Ninth Street joint-venture loan entered default effective February 6, 2026, with lender negotiations underway. California Centers carry earthquake insurance subject to a 5% per-insured-value deductible and a $100 million combined annual aggregate loss limit, which may limit recovery if a seismic event affects the concentrated California sub-portfolio.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From Macerich Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — Macerich Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Compass Point Downgrades Macerich to Neutral, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga Jun 26, 2026 negative
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Macerich, Raises Price Target to $26 — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Nucor Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 4 Upgrades For Wednesday — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Okta To Rally More Than 18%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Wednesday — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Citigroup Upgrades Macerich to Buy, Raises Price Target to $28 — benzinga Jun 24, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-29T23:53:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, New York and Arizona10-K Item 1A: 'A significant percentage of our Centers are located in California, New York and Arizona'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.72: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $24.19. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.44 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $24.19. Stop-loss: $24.19.
Target reached (-12.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-46.5% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -2.3%), High leverage (D/E 6.3).
Macerich Company (The) trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 234.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover MAC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $25.
What does Macerich Company (The) do?Macerich owns and manages 38 shopping centers across the U.S. — 37 regional retail malls and one community/power center...
Macerich owns and manages 38 shopping centers across the U.S. — 37 regional retail malls and one community/power center — totaling approximately 39 million square feet of GLA. Revenue comes from base and percentage rents, with 73% from Mall Stores and Freestanding Stores under 10,000 sq ft and 27% from Big Box and Anchor tenants.