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Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Lemonade is a digital-first insurer offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the US and select European markets, with over 3 million customers. It earns revenue through premiums on a subscription model, using AI bots for underwriting and claims processing... Read more

$55.12+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#24 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $51.15Target $56.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$65.11+18.1%9 analysts
$56.65our TP
$55.12price
$65.11mean
$33
$98

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole provider of third-party data centers
Target reached (3.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-155.6
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA-33.4
Profit Mgn-22.4%
ROE-29.4%
Rev Growth53.5%
Beta2.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$30-45.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersole provider of third-party data centers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Interruptions or delays in the services provided by our sole provider of third-party data centers could impair the operability of our website.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
9.0
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -22.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Gross Margin
6.6
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 16%, FCF yield 2.7%)No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.54Resistance $72.78

Price Targets

$51
$57
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (3.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.12: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $51.15. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LMND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.65 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $51.15. Stop-loss: $51.15.

What are the risks of investing in LMND?

Concentration risk — Supplier: sole provider of third-party data centers; Target reached (3.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is LMND overvalued or undervalued?

Lemonade, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -155.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LMND?

18 analysts cover LMND with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Lemonade, Inc. do?Lemonade is a digital-first insurer offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the US and select...

Lemonade is a digital-first insurer offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the US and select European markets, with over 3 million customers. It earns revenue through premiums on a subscription model, using AI bots for underwriting and claims processing while ceding risk through reinsurance.

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