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Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.59; Below-average business quality.

Lemonade is a digital-first insurance company offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the U.S. and select European markets through AI-driven bots and a vertically integrated technology platform. Revenue comes from premiums (net of reinsurance ceded), with... Read more

$54.40+24.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#21 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.19%
Stop $50.19Target $67.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$60.11+10.5%9 analysts
$67.11our TP
$54.40price
$60.11mean
$33
$92

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.59; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Lemonade, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-143.9
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA-42.2
Profit Mgn-16.4%
ROE-26.1%
Rev Growth70.6%
Beta1.85
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.59bearish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$35-35.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyHannover Ruck SE and MAPFRE Re
    10-K Item 1: 'Proportional Reinsurance Contracts with a term of one year that expires on June 30, 2026 are issued by Hannover Ruck SE and MAPFRE Re Compania De Reaseguros S.A., each holding an ‘A’ or better rating from A.M. Best'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.5
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
9.7
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -16.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
4.7
Fcf Quality
5.2
Moat
6.5
Gross Margin
6.7
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 11%, FCF yield 2.2%)
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.80Resistance $68.48

Price Targets

$50
$67
A.Upside+23.4%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LMND stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $54.40: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.59; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $50.19. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LMND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.11 (+24.3% upside). Prior stop was $50.19. Stop-loss: $50.19.

What are the risks of investing in LMND?

Target reached (-3.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is LMND overvalued or undervalued?

Lemonade, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -143.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LMND?

19 analysts cover LMND with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $60.

What does Lemonade, Inc. do?Lemonade is a digital-first insurance company offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the U.S....

Lemonade is a digital-first insurance company offering renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance in the U.S. and select European markets through AI-driven bots and a vertically integrated technology platform. Revenue comes from premiums (net of reinsurance ceded), with subscription-based recurring revenue and strong retention; the company has ~3 million customers and holds wholesale proportional reinsurance contracts covering ~20% of its book as of mid-2026.

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