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Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor (LGND) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $207.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Hovione; Concentration risk — Product: Captisol material sales.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical royalty company that invests in and licenses technologies to generate diversified royalty streams from high-value medicines. Revenue comes from royalties on partner-commercialized products (led by Kyprolis, Qarziba, Filspari),... Read more

$207.78+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#30 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.41%
Stop $194.01Target $236.47(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$271.80+30.8%10 analysts
$236.47our TP
$207.78price
$271.80mean
$330

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $207.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Hovione; Concentration risk — Product: Captisol material sales. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.38, quality 7.7/10, growth 8.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 30, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.02: Ligand terminated the TR-Beta Program under its Master License Agreement with Viking Therapeutics effective May 4, 2026, citing Viking's material breach of its obligation to use Commercially Reasonable Efforts to develop and commercialize the program.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Hovione
Concentration risk — Product: Captisol material sales
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.1
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA28.6
Profit Mgn55.9%
ROE17.1%
Rev Growth14.1%
Beta1.07
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierHovione
    10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain Captisol from Hovione, our third-party manufacturer, primarily at their facilities in Ireland and Portugal.'
  • HIGHProductCaptisol material sales
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues from sales of Captisol material to our collaboration partners, including Amgen, represent approximately half of our royalty revenues.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Ligand terminated the TR-Beta Program under its Master License Agreement with Viking Therapeutics effective May 4, 2026, citing Viking's material breach of its obligation to use Commercially Reasonable Efforts to develop and commercialize the program.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $200.01Resistance $247.38

Price Targets

$194
$236
A.Upside+13.8%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LGND stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $207.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Hovione; Concentration risk — Product: Captisol material sales. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.38, quality 7.7/10, growth 8.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $236.47 (+13.8%), stop $194.01 (−7.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LGND stock price target?

Take-profit target: $236.47 (+13.8% upside). Target $236.47 (+13.8%), stop $194.01 (−7.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $194.01.

What are the risks of investing in LGND?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Hovione; Concentration risk — Product: Captisol material sales; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is LGND overvalued or undervalued?

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor trades at a P/E of 27.1 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about LGND?

14 analysts cover LGND with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $272.

What does Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorpor do?Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical royalty company that invests in and licenses technologies to generate...

Ligand Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical royalty company that invests in and licenses technologies to generate diversified royalty streams from high-value medicines. Revenue comes from royalties on partner-commercialized products (led by Kyprolis, Qarziba, Filspari), Captisol material sales, and contract revenue; total royalty receipts were $176.9M in 2025. The Captisol platform underpins 17 FDA-approved products and is sole-sourced from Hovione.

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