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Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $125.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community (49.0%).

Leidos is a U.S. government-focused IT services, engineering, and technology company with ~47,000 employees, generating 87% of revenues from U.S. government contracts. It operates four segments: National Security & Digital (44% of revenues), Health & Civil (30%), Commercial &... Read more

$125.96+29.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#11 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.61%
IncomeYield1.38%(5y avg 1.25%)Payout15.19%sustainable
Stop $117.88Target $163.37(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$187.79+49.1%14 analysts
$163.37our TP
$125.96price
$187.79mean
$225

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $125.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community (49.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Leidos Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 30%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community (49.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$15.7B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE30.6%
Rev Growth3.7%
Beta0.57
Dividend1.38%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.39bearish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government87%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenues from contracts with the U.S. government... generated approximately 87% of our total revenue in fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerDoW and U.S. Intelligence Community49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues under contracts with the DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community... represented approximately 49% of our total revenues for fiscal 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Leidos stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan and 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan at the May 1, 2026 Annual Meeting. No officer departure or appointment involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
22 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $121.53Resistance $154.62

Price Targets

$118
$163
A.Upside+29.7%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LDOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $125.96 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community (49.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $117.88. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the LDOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $163.37 (+29.7% upside). Prior stop was $117.88. Stop-loss: $117.88.

What are the risks of investing in LDOS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (87.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: DoW and U.S. Intelligence Community (49.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is LDOS overvalued or undervalued?

Leidos Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LDOS?

23 analysts cover LDOS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $188.

What does Leidos Holdings, Inc. do?Leidos is a U.S. government-focused IT services, engineering, and technology company with ~47,000 employees, generating...

Leidos is a U.S. government-focused IT services, engineering, and technology company with ~47,000 employees, generating 87% of revenues from U.S. government contracts. It operates four segments: National Security & Digital (44% of revenues), Health & Civil (30%), Commercial & International (13%), and Defense Systems (13%).

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