Value
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
KOPN · Why this verdict
Why Kopin (KOPN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kopin Corporation shows a highly favorable modeled asymmetry with 70.1% upside against 15% downside, but quality sits below the engine's floor with a red-flagged earnings-quality warning of -2105% FCF/NI conversion, notable insider selling of $1.8 million, and a run of earnings misses, all under a speculative classification following a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality composite score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by an earnings-quality red flag of -2105% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive and Piotroski F-Score should rise to at least 5/9 over the next 12 months for the quality concern to ease. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn extreme negative FCF/NI ratio like this can be an artifact of a near-zero net income denominator rather than reflecting genuinely deteriorating cash generation. | ||
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 4.67, with modeled upside of 70.1% against downside of 15.0%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should stay above 3.0 and modeled upside should remain above 40% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA large modeled upside built on an analyst target for a small, thinly-covered stock can prove unreliable if the target itself is based on light analyst coverage. | ||
Insiders sold a notable $1,763,275 (0.244% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, a level the engine classifies as moderate severity. Insider | Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with reduced selling activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsider selling can reflect personal liquidity needs or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative view of company prospects. | ||
The company has missed or come in below estimates in the majority of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -92.7%. Earnings | The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss trend is set to reverse. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe RSI pullback to 31 with the stock still above its 200-day moving average is flagged in the data as a buy opportunity, suggesting sentiment may already be pricing in the weak earnings trend. | ||
The engine classifies the stock as speculative due to a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high, just over the 40% threshold. Suitability rationale | The drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow to less than 40% over the next 12 months if the recovery is durable. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA drawdown just barely past the 40% speculative threshold could reverse quickly with a modest price recovery, unlike a deeper structural decline. | ||
The quality composite score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by an earnings-quality red flag of -2105% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive and Piotroski F-Score should rise to at least 5/9 over the next 12 months for the quality concern to ease.
CounterAn extreme negative FCF/NI ratio like this can be an artifact of a near-zero net income denominator rather than reflecting genuinely deteriorating cash generation.
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 4.67, with modeled upside of 70.1% against downside of 15.0%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold.
↑ImprovingReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay above 3.0 and modeled upside should remain above 40% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds.
CounterA large modeled upside built on an analyst target for a small, thinly-covered stock can prove unreliable if the target itself is based on light analyst coverage.
Insiders sold a notable $1,763,275 (0.244% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, a level the engine classifies as moderate severity.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with reduced selling activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive.
CounterInsider selling can reflect personal liquidity needs or pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a negative view of company prospects.
The company has missed or come in below estimates in the majority of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -92.7%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss trend is set to reverse.
CounterThe RSI pullback to 31 with the stock still above its 200-day moving average is flagged in the data as a buy opportunity, suggesting sentiment may already be pricing in the weak earnings trend.
The engine classifies the stock as speculative due to a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high, just over the 40% threshold.
↑ImprovingSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- The drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow to less than 40% over the next 12 months if the recovery is durable.
CounterA drawdown just barely past the 40% speculative threshold could reverse quickly with a modest price recovery, unlike a deeper structural decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -558% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 51% YoY
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸High IV: 127%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.47
Upside
+37.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.55>1.3, MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.47.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Momentum at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Catalyst at 3.6, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 2 out of 9, down from the current 3.3.
- P2High Asymmetry Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5, reversing the currently passed 4.67 reading.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $3,000,000 over a 90-day period, up from the current $1,763,275.
- P4Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below -50% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the current miss trend.
- P5Speculative Drawdown Classification
Trip ifPrice falls more than 55% off the 52-week high, worse than the current -41% drawdown.