Kemper Corporation (KMPR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty P&C Insurance and Life Insurance. It serves 4.5M policies through 24,100+ agents with $12.5B in assets, generating ~$4B in net written premiums in 2025, concentrated in California, Florida and Texas.
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia and Florida82%10-K Item 1A: 'California and Florida represented 82% of the Company's total personal automobile insurance gross written premiums in 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.40: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $31.71. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.47 (+39.2% upside). Prior stop was $31.71. Stop-loss: $31.71.
Single-region cliff: 82% exposure to California and Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California and Florida (82.0%); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
Kemper Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover KMPR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Kemper Corporation do?Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty P&C Insurance and Life Insurance. It...
Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty P&C Insurance and Life Insurance. It serves 4.5M policies through 24,100+ agents with $12.5B in assets, generating ~$4B in net written premiums in 2025, concentrated in California, Florida and Texas.