A geographic concentration of 82% in two high-catastrophe-risk states, four consecutive large earnings misses averaging more than 60% below estimates, a confirmed technical downtrend, and business quality falling below the investable minimum collectively outweigh a superficially attractive forward multiple and make current positioning unwarranted.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration Cliff Risk↑Improving
- Persistent Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026· older than 90 days
Kemper Corporation (KMPR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality.
Kemper Corporation underwrites specialty personal and commercial automobile insurance through its Specialty P&C segment (89% of premiums in 2025) and individual life and supplemental health insurance via its Life Insurance segment, operating solely in the United States. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: speculative.
About Kemper Corporation
About Kemper Corporation
Kemper Corporation wrote $4.0 billion in total property and casualty net written premiums in 2025, with approximately $12.5 billion in assets and over 4.5 million policies in force. California and Florida together represented 82% of the company's total personal automobile insurance gross written premiums that year, with the Specialty P&C segment — which contributed $3.95 billion and 89% of consolidated insurance premiums — concentrated in just three states.
Kemper earns premiums primarily through specialty personal automobile insurance targeting non-standard risk drivers — those with poor driving records, claims history, or payment challenges — plus commercial automobile coverage for contractors, short-haul delivery, and sales/service operators. The Specialty P&C segment distributes products through approximately 17,800 independent agents and brokers as well as direct-to-consumer and captive channels across 22 states. The Life Insurance segment, based in St. Louis, Missouri, sells individual life and supplemental accident and health insurance through nearly 2,200 career agents in 26 states; average policy premiums run approximately $30 per month with a face value of $6,513, and earned premiums represented 9% of consolidated insurance premiums in 2025. Catastrophe reinsurance covering $110 million in excess of $50 million per individual event is purchased annually from reinsurers rated A- or better by A.M. Best.
Show full overview
The 82% concentration of personal auto gross written premiums in California and Florida subjects Kemper to single-state regulatory risk. California restricts insurers' ability to increase premium rates on a timely basis, which the 10-K notes has produced pricing inadequacies with material impact on operating results in recent periods. Florida's 2023 PIP coverage changes reduced certain loss costs, providing a partial offset, but both states impose limits on after-tax underwriting returns. In May 2026, Kemper disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Stephen J. McAnena as permanent President and CEO effective June 1, 2026, ending the interim CEO arrangement.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Kemper Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Kemper Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Kemper Corporation Announces Preliminary Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Kemper Reports Q3 Preliminary Net Income Of $0.08 Per Share, Adjusted Net Operating Income Per Unrestricted Share Of $1. — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Transcript: Kemper Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Oct 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Kemper, Lowers Price Target to $42 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on Kemper, Lowers Price Target to $43 — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T12:04:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia and Florida82%10-K Item 1A: 'California and Florida represented 82% of the Company's total personal automobile insurance gross written premiums in 2025'
- HIGHProductSpecialty P&C Insurance89%10-K Item 1: 'The segment's insurance products accounted for 89%, 85% and 80% of the Company's consolidated insurance premiums in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-27Item 5.02MEDIUMStephen J. McAnena appointed President and CEO effective June 1, 2026. Interim CEO C. Thomas Evans Jr. returns to EVP, Secretary, and General Counsel. No reason cited for succession timing; successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -10.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76. Prior stop was $33.26. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $30.88 reached (−13.6% from $35.76); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $33.26. Stop-loss: $33.26.
Single-region cliff: 82% exposure to California and Florida (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California and Florida (82.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Specialty P&C Insurance (89.0%).
Kemper Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate KMPR, with a consensus score of 2.5/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $36.
What does Kemper Corporation do?Kemper Corporation underwrites specialty personal and commercial automobile insurance through its Specialty P&C segment...
Kemper Corporation underwrites specialty personal and commercial automobile insurance through its Specialty P&C segment (89% of premiums in 2025) and individual life and supplemental health insurance via its Life Insurance segment, operating solely in the United States. The company generated $4.0 billion in total P&C net written premiums in 2025, distributed through roughly 24,100 agents and brokers serving over 4.5 million policies.