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Kemper Corporation (KMPR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.36: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty Property & Casualty (personal and commercial auto) and Life Insurance, serving over 4.5 million policies with ~$12.5B in assets. The Specialty P&C segment is heavily concentrated in California (63%),... Read more

$29.36+48.6% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#29 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield26.77%
IncomeYield4.39%(5y avg 2.38%)Payout177.78%at-risk
Stop $27.13Target $43.35(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$51.00+73.7%3 analysts
$43.35our TP
$29.36price
$51.00mean
$81

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.36: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kemper Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.5
P/E (Fwd)6.4
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE1.1%
Rev Growth-7.1%
Beta1.16
Dividend4.39%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.7
Declining revenue: -7%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Growth Rank
0.7
Value Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 439.0%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.3
Roe
0.4
Roa
0.4
Net Margin
0.4
Gross Margin
1.4
Current Ratio
3.3
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.3
Obv
9.8
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.44Resistance $34.27

Price Targets

$27
$43
A.Upside+47.6%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMPR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.36: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $27.13. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KMPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.35 (+48.6% upside). Prior stop was $27.13. Stop-loss: $27.13.

What are the risks of investing in KMPR?

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is KMPR overvalued or undervalued?

Kemper Corporation trades at a P/E of 40.5 (forward 6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KMPR?

11 analysts cover KMPR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $51.

What does Kemper Corporation do?Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty Property & Casualty (personal and...

Kemper is a specialty insurance holding company with two segments: Specialty Property & Casualty (personal and commercial auto) and Life Insurance, serving over 4.5 million policies with ~$12.5B in assets. The Specialty P&C segment is heavily concentrated in California (63%), Florida (16%), and Texas (11%), which together provided 90% of segment premiums in 2025.

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